Updated September 2, 2026
The NASCAR Cup Series opens The Chase on Sunday, September 6, with one of the schedule’s toughest tests: the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. The 367-lap race rewards long-run speed, tire management and drivers who can repeatedly run close to the outside wall without stepping over the limit. Denny Hamlin enters as the top seed and the DraftKings favorite at +500, but there are several drivers close to him on the board who have strong chances of picking up the win for themselves.
Reddick’s spring victory is the strongest reason to back him, but the way he earned it matters more than the result alone. He started from the pole and led 77 laps, yet the afternoon could have unraveled almost immediately. An electrical issue forced him to manage power, and a slow right-front tire change dropped him well behind the leaders. Later, his team changed a battery while pit road was closed, forcing him to restart at the rear. Reddick still worked his way through traffic and eventually beat Brad Keselowski by 5.847 seconds. That was not a race won solely through track position or a fortunate caution. The No. 45 had enough speed over long runs to recover repeatedly.
That performance fits a broader Darlington pattern. Reddick came within 0.408 seconds of Chase Briscoe in the 2025 Southern 500 after chasing him during the closing run. Briscoe deserves serious respect again after winning the last two Southern 500s, and his +750 price makes him one of the clearest alternatives to Reddick. Still, Reddick has now shown race-winning pace at this track across different conditions and different points of the season.
Reddick enters The Chase as the No. 3 seed after producing 5 wins, 11 top-five finishes, 16 top-10 finishes, 5 poles and 449 laps led during the regular season. NASCAR’s current performance data ranks him third in speed and third in passing. His summer was less consistent than his extraordinary start to the year, but the final three regular-season results indicate that the No. 45 team has begun converting its pace into better finishes again.
Hamlin is the biggest obstacle for Reddick and the rest of the field. His +500 favorite status is justified by 4 regular-season wins, 14 top fives, 17 top 10s and a series-leading season-long speed ranking. He also owns 5 Cup victories at Darlington. The concern for bettors is price. At +500, Hamlin carries a 16.7% implied win probability. Reddick is available at +600 despite winning the most recent Darlington race and ranking close to Hamlin in the season-long performance metrics.
Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson also belong in the contender group. Blaney finished third at Darlington in March and enters The Chase as the No. 2 seed, while Team Penske has moved Austin Cindric’s higher-ranked pit crew to Blaney’s No. 12 team after pit-road performance cost Blaney significant track position during the regular season. Larson owns a Southern 500 victory and remains one of the series’ fastest drivers, though his results have been much less reliable than his raw pace.
At +600, however, Reddick sits in the best section of the market. My 18.0% win estimate translates to fair pricing near +456. I would still play him down to +500, where the implied probability rises to 16.7%. Below that level, much of the value disappears.
