Updated August 27, 2026
Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 closes the NASCAR Cup Series regular season with 160 laps of drafting, split-second alliances and little room for error. The race begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with qualifying scheduled for Friday at 5 p.m. ET. A field of 41 entries is competing for 40 starting positions, while Shane van Gisbergen carries a 31-point advantage over Ryan Preece for the final provisional Chase position. Ryan Blaney arrives as the defending race winner and fresh from victory at New Hampshire, but Daytona’s volatility makes paying a short outright price difficult to justify.
The outright market remains wide open, which is normal for a Daytona race. NASCAR prediction prices below were checked on August 27 and remain subject to movement following qualifying.
Driver | Current DraftKings Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
William Byron | +850 | 10.53% |
Ryan Blaney | +850 | 10.53% |
Joey Logano | +1100 | 8.33% |
Tyler Reddick | +1200 | 7.69% |
Christopher Bell | +1200 | 7.69% |
Chase Elliott | +1200 | 7.69% |
Kyle Larson | +1600 | 5.88% |
Austin Cindric | +1600 | 5.88% |
Bubba Wallace | +2000 | 4.76% |
Chris Buescher | +2200 | 4.35% |
Brad Keselowski | +2200 | 4.35% |
Denny Hamlin | +2200 | 4.35% |
Comparing sportsbooks matters here. Buescher has also been listed as short as +1600 elsewhere, so +2200 is a meaningful difference rather than a cosmetic one. Bettors should confirm the available price before placing the wager.
Blaney deserves his place near the top of the board. He won this race in 2025, has 2 Daytona victories in his last 10 starts, and enters Saturday after leading 115 of 301 laps at New Hampshire. He has also won 2 of the last 6 Cup races. Still, +850 requires an implied probability above 10%, which is an aggressive valuation for a track where a capable car can disappear in one poorly timed lane change.
Byron shares favorite status after winning consecutive Daytona 500s in 2024 and 2025. He has 3 career Daytona victories, matching Denny Hamlin for the most among active drivers. Byron’s 2026 season has produced 11 top-10 finishes but no wins through 25 races. His history supports a leading position in the market, though +850 leaves little margin for Daytona’s accident exposure.
Buescher offers a better balance of price, current performance, and track-specific success. He finished seventh in February’s Daytona 500 after starting 41st, then placed second at Talladega after leading 22 laps. He added a 10th-place result at EchoPark Speedway in July. Those are 3 top-10 finishes in his 4 drafting-track starts this season, an important sample because drafting decisions and manufacturer cooperation matter more here than conventional intermediate-track speed.
Buescher also ranks first in average driver rating over the last four Daytona races at 95.93. He ranks first in average laps spent inside the top 15 at 130.5, second in average running position at 12.25, and has completed 100% of the scheduled laps in that span.
The closing laps are likely to decide the outcome of this race. Just 1 of the last 18 Daytona races ended with more than 8 consecutive green-flag laps, while 12 of the last 18 summer races required overtime. Nine of the last 11 Daytona winners led 10 or fewer laps, and each of the last 4 races featured a last-lap pass.
Those figures favor a driver who can remain near the front without exposing his car too early. Buescher’s record suggests he can do exactly that. Expect the No. 17 Ford to spend much of the evening inside the first 3 rows of the primary pack, working with RFK teammate Brad Keselowski and other Ford drivers. If Buescher reaches the final restart with a clean car, his lane judgment gives him a legitimate chance to repeat his 2023 victory.
