Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne Prediction & Fight Preview - 9/19/2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Tai Tuivasa and Robelis Despaigne meet in a heavyweight preliminary-card fight at UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Tuivasa enters trying to stop a 7-fight losing streak, while Despaigne returns to the UFC after rebuilding his career outside the promotion. Despaigne went 7-0 in Karate Combat, won its heavyweight title, and then knocked out former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in his lone MMA appearance since his 2024 UFC departure.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The 71¢ price gives too much weight to Tuivasa's recent run of decisions. Despaigne owns a 9-inch reach advantage and has finished all 6 of his professional MMA wins by KO/TKO, while Tuivasa still carries enough power to cash this prediction himself.”
Prop Markets the Best Path
The price difference between the outright winner market and the KO/TKO market matters. Paying 83¢ for Despaigne requires him to win regardless of method, leaving little room between the market price and a reasonable model projection. At 71¢, the KO/TKO prediction covers either fighter landing the decisive shot.
Both Fighters Hunting Knockouts
My projection assigns a 78% chance to a KO/TKO because this matchup keeps the fight in the area where both men are most dangerous. Neither fighter averages a takedown in UFC competition, and neither has built his game around submissions. Despaigne's length, straight punches, and kicks should give him repeated opportunities before Tuivasa can close distance. If Tuivasa does get inside, his best answer is also power.
Recommended Prediction:
Fight Won By KO/TKO
Current Market Price:
71¢
Model Win Probability:
76%
Market-Implied Probability:
71%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
74¢
Model Trade Confidence:
85/100
Statistic | Tai Tuivasa | Robelis Despaigne |
|---|---|---|
Age | 33 | 38 |
Height | 6'2" | 6'7" |
Reach | 75" | 84" |
Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Record | 15-10 | 6-2 |
Tuivasa's current skid has reached 7 consecutive losses, making UFC predictions fading him very profitable of late. His latest came against Louie Sutherland on May 2, 2026, when Sutherland won every round on all 3 scorecards for a 30-26 unanimous decision. Tuivasa spent long stretches underneath Sutherland after giving up repeated takedowns and was deducted a point for an illegal knee late in the fight.
Before that, Tuivasa dropped decisions to Tallison Teixeira and Jairzinho Rozenstruik after earlier stoppage losses to Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich, and Ciryl Gane. It has been a difficult stretch for a fighter who once put together 5 straight UFC wins and worked his way into the heavyweight title picture.
Tuivasa prepared at American Top Team in Florida for this matchup, a logical adjustment after the extended losing run. His problem has never been a lack of finishing power. Tuivasa has 14 knockout victories and 12 first-round finishes on his career résumé. His UFC numbers include 3.37 significant strikes landed per minute, 4.61 absorbed per minute, 49% striking accuracy, and 43% significant-strike defense.
Despaigne has followed a very different path since leaving the UFC after consecutive decision defeats to Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Austen Lane in 2024. He stayed active in Karate Combat, where he won 7 straight contests and captured the heavyweight championship. He then returned to MMA in May and knocked out Junior dos Santos at 3:01 of Round 1.
Despaigne's physical dimensions immediately stand out. At 6'7" with an 84-inch reach, he will have 5 inches of height and 9 inches of reach on Tuivasa. The former Olympic taekwondo bronze medalist is most dangerous when he can operate from long range, using straight punches, long kicks, and explosive entries before his opponent establishes a comfortable rhythm.
All 6 of Despaigne's professional MMA victories have ended by knockout, and all 6 came in Round 1. Four of those wins came in 18 seconds or less. That tells the story of his preferred approach. He wants open space, a clean read on his opponent, and a chance to fire first.
His UFC statistics need context because they come from only 3 previous UFC appearances, but the numbers still illustrate his capabilities. Despaigne lands 2.11 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy while absorbing 2.54. His UFC takedown average is 0.00, which fits a fighter whose offense is centered almost entirely on striking.
Tuivasa is shorter, more compact, and at his best when he can crowd an opponent. His hooks, low kicks, and clinch strikes have produced some of the biggest wins of his UFC career. He knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and Greg Hardy during his 5-fight winning streak from 2020 through 2022.
He does not need much space to generate power, which makes him dangerous if Despaigne becomes careless while leaving exchanges. Tuivasa's path is likely to involve pressuring forward, getting inside the long kicking range, attacking the legs, and forcing Despaigne to trade from much closer than he would prefer.
The central issue for Tuivasa is getting through 84 inches of reach without absorbing clean shots on the way inside. His 43% significant-strike defense is a concern against an opponent whose entire game is built around punishing entries from distance. Despaigne can touch him from positions where Tuivasa cannot immediately answer, and Tuivasa has absorbed 4.61 significant strikes per minute across his UFC career.
There is still a clear path for the Australian. Despaigne's 2 UFC defeats showed that his offense becomes much less dangerous when an opponent disrupts his preferred distance, forces longer exchanges, or makes him defend grappling sequences. Tuivasa also owns far more UFC experience and has faced a much stronger level of heavyweight competition.
The problem is that Tuivasa has historically done his best work by engaging rather than avoiding exchanges. Against a fighter with Despaigne's reach and first-round finishing record, that creates a very small margin for error. If Tuivasa presses forward, Despaigne gets countering opportunities. If Despaigne gets overly aggressive, Tuivasa has the power to punish him.
That is why the method market makes more sense than paying the much higher price on Despaigne outright. I favor Despaigne to win, most likely with a first-round stoppage, but the broader KO/TKO prediction also protects against Tuivasa producing the upset with one of his trademark close-range punches. At 71¢ against a 78% model projection, KO/TKO Yes is the best fit for the matchup and the available Polymarket prices.