Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi Prediction & Fight Preview - 9/19/2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Patricio Pitbull and Dooho Choi meet in a featherweight main-card fight at UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. It is a meeting of 2 experienced finishers whose careers are currently moving in very different directions. Pitbull enters at 37-9 after going 1-2 through his first 3 UFC appearances, while Choi owns a 17-4-1 record and has finished 3 consecutive opponents. Polymarket has reacted by installing Choi as a clear favorite, as he looks to continue his hot streak in LA.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The current price gives Pitbull close to a 30% chance despite Choi's clear advantages in size, recent offensive production, and activity. Pitbull remains dangerous enough to keep this from becoming an extreme price, but his UFC performances have shown increasing difficulty matching opponents who can consistently force him to work at range.”
Choi Should Be a Bigger Favorite
Polymarket currently prices Choi at approximately 71¢, giving him a 71% implied probability of winning, while Pitbull is around 30¢. The fight has generated roughly $27,600 in Polymarket volume. That is a substantial favorite price, but it does not look excessive given how differently the 2 fighters have performed recently. My estimate puts Choi at 75%, creating a 4% model edge at the current 71¢ price. I would still consider the prediction playable at 73¢, but the value becomes thin beyond that point.
Choi's Pace Will Make the Difference
The case for Choi is built more on repeatable advantages than on expecting another quick knockout. Pitbull has gone the full 15 minutes in each of his 3 UFC fights, so assuming Choi simply overwhelms him would underrate the Brazilian's experience, defense, and durability. Choi's more reliable path is to use his jab, combination volume, body attacks, and 70-inch reach to make Pitbull fight at a pace that has caused him problems in the UFC.
Recommended Prediction:
Choi to Win
Current Market Price:
71¢
Model Win Probability:
75%
Market-Implied Probability:
71%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
73¢
Model Trade Confidence:
76/100
Fighter | Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi |
|---|---|---|
Age | 39 | 35 |
Height | 5'6" | 5'10" |
Reach | 67" | 70" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 37-9-0 | 17-4-1 |
Pitbull's UFC run has yet to match what he accomplished before joining the promotion. He debuted against Yair Rodriguez in April 2025 and lost a unanimous decision, rebounded by defeating Dan Ige by unanimous decision in July 2025, then dropped another unanimous decision to Aaron Pico in April 2026. That leaves him at 1-2 in the UFC, with all 3 contests reaching the judges. Pico won their most recent meeting by scores of 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28.
Choi's recent results have been far stronger. He stopped Bill Algeo in the 2nd round in July 2024, finished Nate Landwehr in the 3rd round at UFC 310, then returned in May 2026 and stopped Daniel Santos with strikes at 4:29 of Round 2. He has therefore won and finished 3 straight fights. His performance against Landwehr was particularly useful for evaluating his development because Choi mixed his striking with takedowns and prolonged top control rather than relying strictly on his punching power.
Pitbull remains a dangerous counter striker with a deep grappling background. His career record includes 12 knockout wins and 12 submissions, which forces opponents to respect several possible attacks. At his best, he is patient enough to draw opponents into exchanges before firing compact counters. His experience is another major asset; few situations inside the cage are unfamiliar after 46 professional fights.
The concern is that patience can become inactivity against opponents who control range. Pitbull is giving up 4 inches in height and 3 inches in reach here. Similar physical disadvantages have already caused issues during his UFC run, particularly when opponents can keep him at the end of punches and make him reset. His 2.77 significant strikes landed per minute also creates little margin for error if Choi establishes the higher-output fight.
Choi remains best known for his punching power, but the current version is more complete than the fighter who built his reputation through wild exchanges earlier in his UFC career. He used takedowns effectively against Landwehr, landing 4 of 5 attempts and controlling large portions of the fight before securing the stoppage. Against Daniel Santos, he survived a busy opening round and gradually found better openings before ending the fight with a damaging body attack late in Round 2.
The most important part of this matchup is Choi's ability to make Pitbull initiate. Pitbull is far more dangerous when an opponent charges directly into his counters. Choi certainly has an aggressive side, so Pitbull will have opportunities, but Choi has become better at using a jab, feints, kicks, and level changes rather than simply trading punches.
Choi should also be able to make his physical dimensions count. At 5'10" with a 70-inch reach, he can touch Pitbull from positions where the 5'6" Brazilian has to cover additional distance before answering. Pitbull's counter timing can erase that difference for short stretches, but doing it repeatedly over 3 rounds is a much harder assignment at age 39.
There is still danger in making Choi a massive favorite. He absorbs 4.43 significant strikes per minute, and his aggressive tendencies have contributed to damaging fights in the past. Pitbull also remains one of the most experienced featherweights in MMA and has enough power and submission skill to punish a major mistake.
The more likely pattern, however, is Choi finding the cleaner work with greater frequency. His recent improvements give him several ways to alter the fight if Pitbull begins timing his boxing, and his size should make extended exchanges increasingly difficult for the former Bellator champion. Pitbull may once again be durable enough to reach the scorecards, but Choi's activity and cleaner offensive form give him the better chance to bank rounds or create a late stoppage. At a current Polymarket price near 71¢, Dooho Choi to win is my prediction.
