Boston Red Sox
06:40 PM
ATS Picks on May 12, 2025
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Strikeouts Prop Odds:
Strikeouts 4.5 over: -132
Strikeouts 4.5 under: 100
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop
The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene).
Given the 1.12 discrepancy between Tanner Houck's 6.97 K/9 and his 8.09 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year as it relates to strikeouts and should perform better the rest of the season.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop
The #9 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.
Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to higher offensive output.
The weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Tanner Houck will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
Tanner Houck struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and put up 2 Ks.
Tanner Houck is projected to have 5.2 Strikeouts in today's game.
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Earned Runs Prop Odds:
Earned Runs 2.5 over: 105
Earned Runs 2.5 under: -140
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop
The #8 ballpark in the league for boosting walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.
Comerica Park has the lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.
The weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Tanner Houck will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
This year, Tanner Houck has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a four-seamer), throwing it on 6% of his pitches.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s evaluation, Tanner Houck's overall pitching talent ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters in the league currently.
It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
In MLB, Comerica Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.
The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Given the 2.12 gap between Tanner Houck's 6.10 ERA and his 3.98 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should see positive regression going forward.
Tanner Houck is projected to have 2.5 Earned Runs in today's game.
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Pitching Outs Prop Odds:
Pitching Outs 16.5 over: -125
Pitching Outs 16.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s evaluation, Tanner Houck's overall pitching talent ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters in the league currently.
It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
In MLB, Comerica Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.
The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Given the 2.12 gap between Tanner Houck's 6.10 ERA and his 3.98 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should see positive regression going forward.
Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop
The #8 ballpark in the league for boosting walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.
Comerica Park has the lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.
The weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Tanner Houck will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
This year, Tanner Houck has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a four-seamer), throwing it on 6% of his pitches.
Tanner Houck is projected to have 17.6 Pitching Outs in today's game.
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Consensus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hits Allowed | ov 5.5 (-117) | ov 5.5 (-120) | - | ov 5.5 (-115) | ov 5.5 (-121) |
Total Earned Runs Allowed | ov 2.5 (104) | ov 2.5 (105) | - | ov 2.5 (105) | ov 2.5 (100) |
Total Outs Recorded | ov 16.5 (-130) | ov 16.5 (-125) | ov 16.5 (-128) | ov 16.5 (-135) | ov 16.5 (-133) |
Total Pitching Strikeouts | ov 4.5 (-149) | ov 4.5 (-150) | ov 4.5 (-138) | ov 4.5 (-140) | ov 4.5 (-148) |
Walks Allowed | ov 1.5 (-144) | ov 1.5 (-145) | - | - | ov 1.5 (-142) |
