Aaron Nola projections, stats and prop bet odds for Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies on Jul 11, 2024

Aaron Nola Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts

Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:

  • Strikeouts 6.5 over: 125
  • Strikeouts 6.5 under: -160

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Aaron Nola in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Aaron Nola has averaged 96.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Chris Taylor, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages).

Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Aaron Nola will hold that advantage today.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.

Out of all SPs, Aaron Nola's fastball velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the 19th percentile this year.

Projection For Today's Aaron Nola Strikeouts Prop Bet

Aaron Nola is projected to have 6.4 Strikeouts in todays game.


Aaron Nola Player Prop Bet: Pitching Outs

Pitching Outs Prop Bet Odds:

  • Pitching Outs 18.5 over: 148
  • Pitching Outs 18.5 under: -196

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop Bet

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s judgement, Aaron Nola's overall pitching ability grades out in the 93rd percentile among all SPs in MLB right now.

Aaron Nola has averaged 96.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #24 field in Major League Baseball for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Aaron Nola will hold that advantage today.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Prop Bet

The 2nd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 10th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Citizens Bank Park.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.

Out of all SPs, Aaron Nola's fastball velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the 19th percentile this year.

Aaron Nola has recorded a .255 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

Projection For Today's Aaron Nola Pitching Outs Prop Bet

Aaron Nola is projected to have 17.4 Pitching Outs in todays game.


Aaron Nola Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs

Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:

  • Earned Runs 2.5 over: -167
  • Earned Runs 2.5 under: 130

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet

The 2nd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 10th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Citizens Bank Park.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.

Out of all SPs, Aaron Nola's fastball velocity of 91.5 mph ranks in the 19th percentile this year.

Aaron Nola has recorded a .255 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s judgement, Aaron Nola's overall pitching ability grades out in the 93rd percentile among all SPs in MLB right now.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #24 field in Major League Baseball for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Aaron Nola will hold that advantage today.

Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (92.7 mph) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (91.5 mph).

Projection For Today's Aaron Nola Earned Runs Prop Bet

Aaron Nola is projected to have 2.8 Earned Runs in todays game.