Philadelphia Phillies
07:10 PM
ATS Picks on May 9, 2025
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Strikeouts Prop Odds:
Strikeouts 5.5 over: -125
Strikeouts 5.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 87th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Aaron Nola is projected to throw 98 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-most on the slate today.
The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Jones, Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneemann).
Progressive Field profiles as the #9 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of the day at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop
Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola today.
Considering that groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Aaron Nola and his 42.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB batters.
Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Aaron Nola in today's matchup.
Aaron Nola's 90.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.7-mph decrease from last season's 92.5-mph figure.
Aaron Nola is projected to have 5.4 Strikeouts in today's game.
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Pitching Outs Prop Odds:
Pitching Outs 17.5 over: -192
Pitching Outs 17.5 under: 146
Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Aaron Nola is projected to throw 98 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-most on the slate today.
The Cleveland Guardians projected offense projects as the 2nd-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
Among all stadiums, the 4th-highest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.
The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of the day at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).
Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop
The #6 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.
Among all parks, Progressive Field's left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest.
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola today.
Considering that groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Aaron Nola and his 42.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB batters.
Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Aaron Nola in today's matchup.
Aaron Nola is projected to have 17.4 Pitching Outs in today's game.
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Earned Runs Prop Odds:
Earned Runs 2.5 over: 105
Earned Runs 2.5 under: -145
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop
The #6 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.
Among all parks, Progressive Field's left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest.
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola today.
Considering that groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Aaron Nola and his 42.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB batters.
Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Aaron Nola in today's matchup.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.
The Cleveland Guardians projected offense projects as the 2nd-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
Among all stadiums, the 4th-highest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.
The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of the day at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).
Aaron Nola's change-up percentage has jumped by 6.1% from last year to this one (9.6% to 15.7%) .
Aaron Nola is projected to have 2.6 Earned Runs in today's game.
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Consensus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hits Allowed | ov 4.5 (-152) | ov 4.5 (-155) | - | ov 4.5 (-155) | ov 4.5 (-154) |
Total Earned Runs Allowed | ov 2.5 (109) | ov 2.5 (110) | - | ov 2.5 (105) | ov 2.5 (112) |
Total Outs Recorded | ov 17.5 (-190) | ov 17.5 (-195) | ov 17.5 (-192) | ov 17.5 (-200) | ov 17.5 (-184) |
Total Pitching Strikeouts | ov 5.5 (-124) | ov 5.5 (-125) | ov 5.5 (-115) | ov 5.5 (-125) | ov 5.5 (-133) |
Walks Allowed | ov 1.5 (-200) | ov 1.5 (-200) | - | - | ov 1.5 (-194) |
