Brewers vs Dodgers Game 3 Prediction & Preview: Can LA Avoid Going Down 3-0?
Updated October 14, 2026
Updated October 14, 2026
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in Game 3 of the NLCS on Wednesday, October 14, at Dodger Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee leads the best-of-seven series 2-0, putting the two-time defending World Series champions in a desperate spot as they return home looking to avoid falling behind 3-0.
For Game 3, my top pick is Under 7.5 total runs. Below, I'll explain why I see value on the Under and break down the biggest factors that could determine the outcome.
Polymarket Pricing
Under 7.5 total runs is currently trading at 52¢ on Polymarket, while our model gives it a 56.2% chance of hitting. That creates a 4.2% edge at the current price, with a projected 4-3 Brewers victory supporting the Under.
Blake Snell Has Been Dominant
Snell posted a 1.13 ERA over his final eight regular-season starts, allowing one earned run or fewer in each outing. He also didn't surrender a home run across 42 2/3 regular-season innings. That's a tough matchup for a Milwaukee lineup that finished with just a 97 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Milwaukee's Bullpen Can Keep LA in Check
The Dodgers are batting just .193 this postseason and have scored four runs or fewer in every game since their playoff opener. Things won't get any easier against a Milwaukee bullpen that has allowed just one earned run in 28 2/3 postseason innings, giving the Brewers a chance to limit LA's offense even if Robert Gasser doesn't pitch deep into the game.
Recommended Position:
Under 7.5 Total Runs
Current Price:
52¢
Model Probability:
56.2%
Market Probability:
52.0%
Model Edge:
+4.2%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I know the Dodgers are in a desperate spot down 2-0, but that doesn't necessarily mean their offense is going to break out tonight. The Under is 8-1-1 in LA's last 10 games, and Milwaukee has played to the Under in six of its last 10. Gasser isn't the most reliable starter, but I think both pitching staffs have enough to keep this total below 7.5 runs. At 52¢, I like the value on the Under.”
Blake Snell was excellent down the stretch, posting a 1.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his final eight regular-season starts. He also didn't allow a home run in 42 2/3 regular-season innings. He wasn't quite as sharp against Atlanta in the NLDS, walking five batters in 3 2/3 innings, but still allowed just one run.
Robert Gasser also finished the regular season on a high note, recording a 1.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across five September starts. He then held San Diego to one run over four innings in the NLDS. However, he struggled against the Dodgers during the regular season, allowing seven earned runs in 10 2/3 innings across two starts.
Both pitchers enter Game 3 in good form, although Gasser's history against LA and Snell's recent command issues are worth keeping in mind.
The Dodgers have struggled offensively this postseason, batting just .193 with a .591 OPS through six games. Those struggles have been even more noticeable with runners in scoring position, where they're just 2-for-26 (.077), including 1-for-10 in the first two games against Milwaukee.
Some of LA's biggest stars have been part of the problem. Shohei Ohtani is batting just .150 with no extra-base hits, while Will Smith is 1-for-23 (.043). The Dodgers also managed only three hits in Game 2, continuing a stretch in which they've struggled to put together consistent offense.
There are still dangerous hitters in this lineup, including Teoscar Hernández, who is 2-for-5 (.400) with a home run and three RBIs against Gasser this season. I also highlighted that matchup in my Game 3 player prop predictions.
Still, LA's overall offensive struggles make it difficult to expect a breakout game against Milwaukee's pitching staff.
Milwaukee's bullpen has been one of the biggest reasons for its postseason success. Through six playoff games, Brewers relievers have allowed just one earned run in 28 2/3 innings, good for a remarkable 0.31 ERA. In Game 2 against LA, four relievers combined for five perfect innings, retiring all 15 batters they faced.
Abner Uribe has appeared in all six postseason games, allowing zero earned runs over six innings, while Aaron Ashby has pitched in five games and earned a five-out save in Game 2. Both have played important roles in Milwaukee's ability to shut down opposing offenses late in games.
This isn't entirely surprising, either. The Brewers finished the regular season with the second-best bullpen ERA in MLB (3.22) across 645 innings. With Gasser unlikely to pitch deep into Game 3, Milwaukee's relievers could once again play a major role in keeping the Dodgers' offense in check.
It's hard to trust the Dodgers' offense to suddenly break out of its slump, even with LA facing a potential 3-0 series deficit.
That said, I expect a solid outing from Blake Snell, and LA has some reliable bullpen options in Alex Vesia (2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and Tanner Scott (2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), who could help keep this game close.
That's why Under 7.5 total runs is my favorite play for Game 3. The biggest threat to that pick is Ohtani and the rest of LA's lineup finally getting going, especially if they can hit a few early home runs off Gasser.
If you're concerned about LA's offense breaking out, I don't mind a smaller position on Dodgers -1.5 at 42¢ on Polymarket. But with LA's recent offensive struggles and Milwaukee's dominant bullpen, I still see the most value on the Under.
For more game previews, expert picks, and analysis throughout the rest of the playoffs, check out our latest MLB predictions.
