Stars vs Avalanche Prediction: Round Two in Colorado

The Avalanche improved to 4-2-0 with Tuesday's victory, responding well after a disappointing 6–3 home defeat against Toronto over the weekend.

Martin Nečas was the difference-maker, scoring twice during the second period to give Colorado a 3–1 lead. Artturi Lehkonen opened the scoring, while MacKinnon contributed two assists.

The game was considerably closer than the scoreline suggested entering the third period.

Dallas created several excellent opportunities, particularly late in the second period when Mackenzie Blackwood made important saves against Sam Steel and Justin Hryckowian. The Stars eventually reduced the deficit through Hintz, but Colorado held on.

Blackwood finished with 24 saves, while Jake Oettinger stopped 22 shots for Dallas.

I was particularly impressed by how Colorado managed to secure the victory without Cale Makar. The Avalanche defenseman missed Tuesday's game for personal reasons, leaving Jared Bednar without arguably his most important player outside MacKinnon.

Still, Colorado found a way to win against a strong divisional opponent.

The Avalanche have now scored 29 goals through six games, an average of 4.83 per contest. Those numbers are impressive, although they also explain why the total-goals market isn't particularly enthusiastic about another low-scoring encounter.

MacKinnon leads the way with 12 points, including five goals, while Nečas has provided additional scoring depth.

Colorado can generate offense from several different lines, which makes them difficult to defend against for an entire game.

However, Tuesday demonstrated that Dallas can limit their production, particularly at even strength.

Dallas enter Wednesday's rematch with a 2-3-1 record, having scored just 13 goals through six games.

That's an average of 2.17 goals per contest, which is hardly what you'd expect from a roster featuring Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin.

The Stars have managed two shutout victories this season, defeating San Jose 5–0 and Buffalo 4–0. However, their offensive performances outside those games have been disappointing.

They've scored just four goals across their other four fixtures.

That is a rather concerning statistic, particularly for a team expected to challenge for the Central Division title.

Tuesday's defeat was another example of Dallas struggling to convert opportunities into goals.

Seguin scored his second goal in consecutive games, while Hintz added another during the third period. However, the Stars couldn't find the equalizer despite generating some pressure late in the game.

There were encouraging signs, though.

Miro Heiskanen recorded two assists and played more than 25 minutes, while Seguin looked considerably more involved offensively than he had earlier in the season.

Still, Dallas are missing Matt Duchene, who recently underwent core muscle surgery and is expected to remain unavailable for approximately three months.

The Stars also played Tuesday without Wyatt Johnston, and the young center has been ruled out of Wednesday's rematch because of illness.

That's another significant blow to an offense already struggling to produce consistently.

Both teams are expected to make goaltending changes after their starters played Tuesday night.

Neither starting assignment was independently confirmed through an official team lineup at the time of writing.

Casey DeSmith — Dallas Stars

DeSmith is expected to start after Oettinger played Tuesday.

The 35-year-old has made one appearance this season, posting a .923 save percentage and a 2.05 goals-against average.

Those numbers are encouraging, although one appearance doesn't provide much information about his long-term form.

More importantly, Dallas have generally defended well regardless of their goaltender. The Stars have allowed just ten goals through six games, and they've demonstrated that they can limit opponents' opportunities.

DeSmith will face a difficult challenge against Colorado's high-powered offense, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume he'll struggle simply because he's the backup.

Scott Wedgewood — Colorado Avalanche

Wedgewood is expected to start for Colorado after Blackwood's strong performance Tuesday night.

The former Dallas goaltender has made one appearance this season, posting a .897 save percentage and a 3.00 goals-against average.

That isn't particularly impressive, although we're once again dealing with a very small sample.

Wedgewood knows the Dallas organization well and has experience playing behind Colorado's defensive structure. However, the Avalanche have allowed 19 goals through six games, so defensive support hasn't always been particularly reliable.

This is probably the biggest argument against our under 6.5 goals prediction.

Both expected goalies could perform well, but neither has the same early-season numbers as Oettinger, who has already recorded two shutouts.

Colorado's biggest lineup question concerns Cale Makar, who missed Tuesday's victory to be with his wife for the birth of their twins.

Bednar has not confirmed whether Makar will return for Wednesday's rematch.

The defenseman has seven points through five appearances, including three goals, and remains one of Colorado's most important players at both ends of the ice.

His potential return would undoubtedly strengthen the Avalanche, although it could also make Colorado's already dangerous offense even more difficult to contain.

Dallas have a more straightforward injury situation.

Johnston will miss his second consecutive game because of illness, while Duchene remains unavailable following surgery. Joel Kiviranta is also dealing with a lower-body injury.

Those absences reduce Dallas' offensive depth, particularly with Johnston missing from the middle of the lineup.

I think his absence matters more for the total-goals market than it necessarily does for the outright winner.

Dallas still have enough quality to beat Colorado, but scoring four or five goals without Johnston becomes a more demanding task.

Playing the same opponent on consecutive nights creates an interesting tactical situation.

Both coaching staffs have already seen what worked and what didn't during Tuesday's encounter, giving them an opportunity to make immediate adjustments.

For Dallas, the priority should be reducing Colorado's scoring opportunities, particularly those involving MacKinnon and Nečas.

The Stars actually defended reasonably well at even strength Tuesday, but the Avalanche capitalized on their power-play opportunities, including Nečas' second goal during a five-on-three advantage.

Dallas can't afford to give Colorado that kind of opportunity again.

The Stars have an 85% penalty-killing rate this season, while the Avalanche have converted 23.8% of their power-play opportunities.

Those numbers suggest that special teams could become important, particularly if the game develops the same physical intensity we saw Tuesday.

There is also the issue of fatigue.

Both teams are playing their second game in as many nights, and Dallas have traveled from Texas to Colorado. The thinner air in Denver creates an additional challenge, although these are professional athletes accustomed to demanding travel schedules.

I wouldn't automatically assume fatigue will lead to more goals.

In fact, given the familiarity between these teams and how competitive Tuesday's game became, I wouldn't be surprised if both coaches emphasize defensive organization early.

That could produce another relatively tight encounter.