Dodgers vs Braves Game 3 Prediction: Yamamoto, Sale Face Off in Atlanta
Updated October 6, 2026
Updated October 6, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves meet in a pivotal NLDS Game 3 on Tuesday, with first pitch set for 6:00 p.m. ET at Truist Park. The best-of-five series is tied 1-1, making this a big swing game as both teams look to move within one win of the NLCS.
Game 3 also gives us a great pitching matchup between Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53 ERA) and Chris Sale (14-9, 2.16 ERA). For my Dodgers vs Braves prediction, I’m staying away from the side, as I think the best value is on Under 6.5 total runs.
Below, I’ll break down why I like the Under and preview the key matchups and storylines to watch in Game 3.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Yes, taking the Under with two aces on the mound might seem a little obvious, but I think there’s more to it than that. Neither Sale nor Yamamoto gives up many free passes, with both posting walk rates below 6% this season, and Yamamoto has also been especially good on the road with a 1.77 ERA. With the series tied 1-1, I also expect both teams to lean heavily on their best relievers if needed. Our model projects five total runs, so I think there’s enough room to like the Under at 6.5.”
Chris Sale Has Dominated the Dodgers
Sale finished the season with a 2.16 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate, while holding hitters to a .267 xwOBA and 6.2% barrel rate. He was also dominant in two starts against Los Angeles this season, allowing just two earned runs over 16 innings with 18 strikeouts, including a complete-game shutout in August.
Yamamoto Has Already Pitched Well Against Atlanta
Yamamoto was just as impressive this season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.87 WHIP while holding hitters to a .266 xwOBA, .211 xBA and 6.5% barrel rate. He also faced Atlanta at Truist Park in August, allowing just one run over 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk.
Both Bullpens Should Be in Good Shape
Monday's day off should leave both teams with their top relievers available behind Sale and Yamamoto. Atlanta's bullpen also finished the regular season with a 3.44 ERA and allowed an MLB-low 20.9% of inherited runners to score. That should give the Braves a good chance to keep the Dodgers in check even after Sale exits.
Recommended Position:
Under 6.5 Total Runs
Current Price:
53¢
Model Probability:
58.6%
Market Probability:
53.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Confidence:
76/100
With the series tied 1-1, our Dodgers vs Braves model projections point to another close game Tuesday night. Before first pitch, let's take a closer look at the biggest matchups and storylines that could decide Game 3.
Sale faced Los Angeles twice during the regular season and pitched well both times. He allowed just two earned runs over seven innings in a 3-1 loss at Dodger Stadium in May, then was even better in August, throwing a complete-game shutout with 11 strikeouts in Atlanta's 1-0 win.
That strikeout upside will also be worth watching in Game 3, and we took a closer look at Sale in our Dodgers vs Braves Game 3 player prop predictions.
His success against this lineup goes beyond those two starts, too. The Dodgers' current hitters have combined for just a .200 average and .259 wOBA across 153 career plate appearances against Sale. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have been two of the exceptions, with Betts going 7-for-18 (.389) with a home run and Freeman going 5-for-16 (.313) with two homers against him.
The biggest concern for Game 3 is Sale's postseason track record. He owns a 5.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 41.2 career playoff innings, so he hasn't been nearly as effective in October as he has during the regular season. That's at least something to keep in mind with the stakes much higher on Tuesday.
The Dodgers have plenty of reason to like their pitching matchup in Game 3, too. Yamamoto faced Atlanta once during the regular season, and it came in that same 1-0 game against Sale in August. He allowed just one run over 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk, with Atlanta's only run coming on a first-pitch homer from Drake Baldwin.
Yamamoto has also been excellent away from Dodger Stadium, going 8-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.82 WHIP across 12 road starts this season. He finished the regular season in good form, too, throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing just one hit in his final regular-season road start against Cincinnati.
He also brings a much stronger postseason track record than Sale, entering Game 3 with a 7-1 record, 2.25 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across 56 career playoff innings. That's a pretty good track record to have with the series tied 1-1 and Game 3 potentially swinging the NLDS one way or the other.
Michael Harris II has been one of Atlanta's hottest hitters this postseason, batting .400 with a 1.129 OPS, one home run and four RBIs through five games. He was especially important in Game 2, going 3-for-5 with a double, triple, RBI and run scored as Atlanta evened the series.
That hot stretch goes back further than October. Harris hit .326 from June 1 through the end of the regular season and finished the year at .294 with 26 home runs and 87 RBIs. He also hit .348 against the Dodgers during the regular season.
Atlanta could use another big game from Harris with several other hitters off to slower starts this postseason. Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin are all hitting below .170, putting even more pressure on Harris and the middle of Atlanta's lineup against Yamamoto.
This should be a great game to watch Tuesday, and I lean slightly toward the Dodgers to take Game 3. I trust Yamamoto a little more than Sale in this spot, especially given their postseason track records, and I'll take just about any opportunity to back the two-time defending World Series champions at a near pick'em price on Polymarket.
That said, I think the best value is still on Under 6.5 total runs. Monday's off day should leave both bullpens in good shape, giving each team plenty of options behind two starters who are capable of pitching deep into the game. With the series tied 1-1 and Atlanta coming off a 3-2 win in Game 2, I wouldn't be surprised if we get another tight, low-scoring game Tuesday.
Our model projects five total runs and gives the Under a 58.6% probability, compared to a 53¢ price on Polymarket. That's enough of an edge for me to back the Under rather than force a side.
You can check out our daily MLB predictions for the latest model projections, game previews and analysis all postseason long.
