Mammoth vs Devils Prediction Market Preview: Can Utah Keep Rolling?
Updated October 6, 2026
Updated October 6, 2026
The New Jersey Devils return home Tuesday looking to recover from a 6-0 loss to the New York Islanders, but prediction markets have not abandoned them.
New Jersey remains a modest favorite against the Utah Mammoth, with its win contract trading in the low-to-mid-50¢ range. Utah sits in the mid-40¢ range after starting the season 2-1-0.
That looks close to fair.
Utah has produced the better results, but New Jersey's underlying numbers are considerably stronger than its 1-1-0 record and eight goals allowed might suggest. At the current prices, neither side offers much separation from my projection.
Kalshi currently places New Jersey around a 53% market probability, with Devils Yes around 54¢ and Mammoth Yes around 47¢. Polymarket is slightly more bullish on New Jersey, with the Devils around 55¢ and Utah around 46¢.
That leaves very little model edge at the current price.
My preferred entry would be Utah Yes at 45¢ or lower. At 46–47¢, the Mammoth are interesting but not cheap enough to force a position.
Utah opened the season with a 6-0 win over Chicago and followed it by beating Columbus 4-1. The Mammoth then lost 4-2 at Madison Square Garden, although that game remained tied entering the third period.
Through three games, Utah has scored 12 goals while allowing only five. The Mammoth are averaging 4.00 goals per game and only 1.67 against.
Nick Schmaltz has been one of the league's hottest early scorers, finding the net four times in three games. Clayton Keller already has five assists, while Dylan Guenther has three goals and five points.
This has not simply been a case of favorable finishing either. Utah currently owns approximately a 54.7% five-on-five expected-goal share, generating 3.32 expected goals per game while allowing 2.49.
The Mammoth have played well enough to deserve their 2-1-0 start.
New Jersey's most recent result is difficult to ignore.
The Devils were shut out 6-0 by the Islanders and enter Tuesday averaging only 1.50 goals per game while allowing 4.00.
But two games are far too small a sample to assume something is fundamentally wrong.
New Jersey's underlying numbers have actually been excellent. The Devils have controlled approximately 62.3% of the five-on-five expected goals, with 3.83 expected goals generated per game compared with 2.78 allowed.
That creates a big difference between the scoreboard and the process.
The Devils have not converted enough of their opportunities, while Nico Daws' difficult performance against the Islanders inflated their early goals-against numbers. If the five-on-five play continues, New Jersey should begin producing better results.
That is the strongest argument against simply taking Utah because of the teams' respective records.
Utah's biggest early advantage has come on special teams.
The Mammoth are 6-for-8 on the power play through three games and have yet to allow a power-play goal, giving them a 100% penalty kill. New Jersey, meanwhile, has yet to score with the man advantage.
Those numbers obviously will not continue at their current rates over a full season.
A 75% power play is not sustainable, and it would be dangerous to price Utah as though it were. But it does matter for Tuesday because the Mammoth's top offensive players are already in rhythm and Utah has been dangerous whenever opponents give it extra space.
New Jersey needs to keep this game at five-on-five, where its early underlying performance has been much stronger.
There is one significant counterargument to Utah's early form: this matchup has been almost completely controlled by the Devils.
New Jersey is 4-0-0 against Utah since the franchise began play in 2024-25. Even more strikingly, Utah has never scored more than one goal against the Devils in any of those meetings.
That history deserves some weight, although the current Mammoth roster is not identical to the teams New Jersey faced previously.
Utah has added more depth and enters this season with a deeper blue line and a dangerous young offensive core. Still, New Jersey clearly has evidence that its style can cause problems for the Mammoth.
Jesper Boqvist will make his season debut for New Jersey, joining Amadeus Lombardi and Cody Glass on the fourth line in place of Stefan Noesen.
Sheldon Keefe specifically pointed toward Utah's speed when explaining the decision, saying Boqvist's skating and ability to transport the puck should help New Jersey against a fast Mammoth lineup.
The Devils remain without several players. Connor Brown is out this week, Nick Bjugstad remains sidelined while recovering from a torn pectoral muscle, Johnathan Kovacevic is recovering from a knee procedure and Seamus Casey is expected to miss 8–10 weeks.
Utah defenseman Maveric Lamoureux is also on injured reserve.
This is the main piece of information I would still monitor before publication.
The current projections are Karel Vejmelka for Utah and Jake Allen for New Jersey, but neither has been officially confirmed.
Vejmelka is 1-1-0 with a .917 save percentage and 1.52 goals-against average through two starts. Allen won his only appearance, stopping 23 of 25 shots for a .920 save percentage.
Allen starting would be significant because Nico Daws was in goal for New Jersey's 6-0 loss against the Islanders.
I would not meaningfully downgrade the Devils because of that result if Allen gets the crease.
Vejmelka against Allen leaves my projection around 53–54% New Jersey. If New Jersey unexpectedly returns to Daws, I would move Utah a little higher.
This matchup contains two very different early-season stories.
Utah's results have been excellent and its underlying play has been good enough to support much of that success. The Mammoth have scored, defended well and dominated special teams.
New Jersey's results have been poor, but its underlying play has been better than the scoreboard suggests.
That combination makes it dangerous to overreact in either direction.
Utah should not be dismissed simply because New Jersey is at home and owns the recent head-to-head series. But the Devils should not be treated like a struggling team purely because they were beaten 6-0 in their previous game.
At the current market price, those competing factors are being reflected fairly well.
My projection gives New Jersey approximately a 53–54% probability of winning, leaving Utah at roughly 46–47%.
That is almost exactly where the prediction markets are trading.
Recommended Position: Utah Mammoth Yes
Model Probability: 46–47%
Market Probability: Around 46–47%
Model Edge: Minimal at current price
Entry Threshold: 45¢
Model Confidence: Moderate
Utah becomes more attractive at 45¢ or lower. At that level, I would be willing to take the Mammoth's early five-on-five performance, strong goaltending and offensive form against a New Jersey team that has yet to turn its underlying play into results.
At 46–47¢, however, the market is close enough to fair that passing is perfectly reasonable.
I would also avoid chasing New Jersey much above the mid-50¢ range. The Devils' underlying numbers make them deserving favorites, but Utah has played too well to justify creating a much wider gap.
