Updated October 6, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market fluctuates.
The Padres are currently priced at 55.5¢ on Polymarket, making them a slight favorite to keep their season alive and force a Game 4.
The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres head to Petco Park for Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday night, with first pitch set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Milwaukee leads the series 2-0 after a pair of close wins at home and will look to complete the sweep, with Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA) facing Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA).
San Diego came into the postseason in good form and has been tough to beat at Petco Park all year, so this series may not be over just yet. Rather than looking at a side or total, though, I think the best value may be in the player prop markets.
Below, I'll break down my three favorite Brewers vs Padres player prop predictions for Game 3, targeting Nick Pivetta, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill.
Four Strikeouts Has Been a Low Bar for Pivetta
Pivetta recorded at least four strikeouts in seven of his eight regular-season starts despite missing five months with an elbow injury. He also struck out four Cubs in just 3.1 innings in the Wild Card round, so he has shown he can reach this number without needing a particularly long start.
Milwaukee Has Been Striking Out More on the Road
The Brewers aren't a high-strikeout offense overall, but their recent road splits are much more favorable for Pivetta. Milwaukee struck out in 30.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road over the final four weeks of the regular season, giving him a better matchup than the Brewers' season-long numbers suggest.
Pivetta Has Multiple Ways to Generate Strikeouts
Pivetta generated a 35.5% chase rate this season, with hitters making contact on just 59.2% of their swings outside the zone. His four-seam fastball has also accounted for 25 of his 42 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .203 average, so he doesn't have to rely entirely on his breaking stuff to get hitters out.
Recommended Prediction:
Nick Pivetta 4+ Ks
Current Market Price:
62¢
Model Win Probability:
67.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
62.0%
Model Edge:
+5.4%
Buy Up To:
66¢
Model Trade Confidence:
76/100
Tatis Entered the Postseason in Good Form
Tatis hit safely in 10 of his final 11 regular-season games, batting .390 with a .457 OBP and .683 slugging percentage over that stretch. He hasn't been quite as productive at the plate in October, but he has still contributed with three hits, three runs and two RBIs through four postseason games.
He Matches Up Well With Dustin May's Fastballs
May throws his four-seamer, cutter and sinker nearly 69% of the time, and Tatis has hit all three well this season. He batted .282 against four-seamers, .413 against cutters and .309 against sinkers, with a .310 xBA and .570 xSLG against four-seamers in particular.
May Struggled Down the Stretch
May has pitched well against San Diego this season, but his recent form hasn't been nearly as good. He posted a 7.61 ERA over his final eight regular-season outings, while his walk rate increased from 7.6% to 9.3% after joining Milwaukee.
Recommended Prediction:
Tatis Jr. O1.5 H+R+RBI
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model Over Probability:
61.2%
Market-Implied Probability:
55.0%
Model Edge:
+6.2%
Buy Up To:
60¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Merrill Matches Up Well With May's Pitch Mix
May throws his four-seamer, cutter and sinker nearly 69% of the time, and Merrill has hit all three well this season. He posted a .535 SLG against sinkers, .522 against cutters and .422 against four-seamers, with an even better .616 xSLG and 51.4% hard-hit rate against cutters.
Most of Merrill's Power Has Come Against Right-Handed Pitching
Merrill hit 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season after hitting 19 against righties in 2024 and 14 in 2025. That gives him a pretty consistent track record of producing power in this split, which is a good starting point against May and a Milwaukee pitching staff that should feature plenty of right-handed arms Tuesday.
Merrill Has Been Making Plenty of Hard Contact
Merrill finished the regular season with a 91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.7% hard-hit rate and .491 xSLG. That kind of contact gives him legitimate home run upside even if May doesn't pitch deep into Game 3 and Merrill gets multiple looks at the rest of Milwaukee's pitching staff.
Recommended Prediction:
Merrill to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
15¢
Model HR Probability:
20.3%
Market-Implied Probability:
15.0%
Model Edge:
+5.3%
Buy Up To:
19¢
Model Trade Confidence:
73/100
That lines up pretty well with our player prop predictions for Game 3, which, as you may have noticed, all lean toward San Diego having a good night. With the Padres back at home and in a desperate spot with their season on the line, I'm expecting a strong effort Tuesday night.
Our full Brewers vs Padres Game 3 prediction also likes San Diego in this spot, with our model giving the Padres a 60% chance to win.
As for the total, it's currently set at 7.5 runs, with the Over trading at 50.5¢. I'm not necessarily expecting a high-scoring game with Pivetta on the mound and two bullpens that finished in the top five in MLB in ERA during the regular season. Still, I think San Diego is in a good spot to get more out of its offense after scoring just five runs across the first two games.
That's another reason I prefer targeting the player prop markets in Game 3 rather than forcing a side or total. You can check out our daily MLB predictions for more model projections, game previews and analysis throughout the postseason.
