Dodgers vs Braves Game 3 Props: NLDS Player Prop Predictions
Updated October 6, 2026
Dodgers vs Braves Game 3 Full Game Pricing
Updated October 6, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves enter Tuesday’s Game 3 with the NLDS tied 1-1 after splitting the opening 2 games in Los Angeles. Atlanta responded to a 5-3 loss in Game 1 with a 3-2 victory in Game 2, moving home-field advantage to Truist Park for a pivotal pitching duel between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale. Sale’s strikeout markets deserve particular attention. His raw swing-and-miss numbers remain elite, and it will be very interesting to see how he performs in such a big spot against such a dangerous opposing lineup.
Pitching Duel Expected
Polymarket’s Game 3 pricing strongly respects both starting pitchers. The current board has the full-game Under 6.5 runs around 53¢, while the market has also leaned against a first-inning run. That tells us traders expect Sale and Yamamoto to control much of the game. It does not necessarily follow that Sale needs 8 strikeouts to pitch well, however. He can work through 6 innings with weak contact, ground balls, and routine fly balls while still landing in the 5-to-7 strikeout range.
Price vs. Projection
Under 7.5 strikeouts for Sale comes in at 53¢ entering Tuesday. My fair probability for Sale finishing with 7 or fewer strikeouts is 58%. That makes 56¢ the highest price I would pay for the No side. If Polymarket moves above 56¢ on No before first pitch, the value becomes too thin. If the price sits around 55¢ or lower, the gap between price and projected probability gets considerably more attractive.
Recommended Position:
Sale Under 7.5 Ks
Current Price:
53¢
Model Probability:
58%
Market Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
56¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Sale’s 200-strikeout regular season and his dominant August performance against Los Angeles make the 8+ strikeout side easy to back at first glance. The less obvious part is that the Dodgers struck out in only 20.0% of their plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, while Sale has also had an unusual postseason schedule that caused Atlanta to delay this start. Those factors make 8 strikeouts a tougher bar to clear than usual.”
There is an obvious reason traders may be drawn to the over while making their Dodgers vs Braves Game 3 predictions. Sale was outstanding against the Dodgers on August 27, throwing a complete-game, 5-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts in a 1-0 Atlanta victory. He also struck out 7 Dodgers across 7 innings in their earlier meeting this season. Across those 2 starts, Sale produced 18 strikeouts in 16 innings against one of baseball’s deepest lineups.
Those results create a risk of placing too much weight on a small head-to-head sample. Sale exceeded 7.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 27 regular-season starts. In other words, even during a season in which he finished with 200 strikeouts and a 2.16 ERA, 8 or more strikeouts occurred in fewer than half of his starts.
Los Angeles is a difficult opponent for an 8+ strikeout prediction because its lineup does a good job extending plate appearances without producing an excessive number of strikeouts. The Dodgers finished the regular season with a 20.0% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, along with a .251 average, .330 on-base percentage and .755 OPS in those plate appearances.
Sale can dominate the Dodgers and still fall short of 8 strikeouts if Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and the rest of the lineup consistently put two-strike pitches into play.
The strongest argument against this selection is Sale’s slider. Statcast data shows he used the pitch 39.9% of the time during 2026, generating a 38.2% whiff rate. Batters hit only .186 against it, and plate appearances ending on the slider produced a 42.2% strikeout rate. His 4-seam fastball was also effective, producing a 27.5% whiff rate while averaging 96.1 mph.
If Sale establishes the fastball early and gets Dodgers hitters reaching for the slider below the zone, 8 strikeouts are well within reach. That is why our model is at 58% rather than something closer to 70%. His stuff is capable of beating this position without requiring an unusually long start.
Atlanta’s handling of Sale will be important. The Braves already showed in Game 2 that they are comfortable leaning on their bullpen. Ray Kerr and Didier Fuentes helped hold Los Angeles to 2 runs, and Atlanta returned home with the series tied despite saving Sale for Game 3.
If Sale reaches the middle innings with Atlanta ahead and his pitch count elevated, Weiss has less reason to force another inning simply to extend his workload. A line such as 6 innings, 2 runs and 7 strikeouts would be an excellent postseason start while still cashing the No side of an 8+ strikeout contract.
