SERIE A
Across seven Serie A matches, Genoa sit 17th with a 1-1-5 record, while Venezia are 20th at 1-0-6. Genoa have 6.70 xG and 10.08 xGA, which works out to 0.96 and 1.44 per match. Venezia have 12.41 xG and 17.84 xGA, or 1.77 and 2.55 per match. That means Venezia’s attack has underdelivered less than Genoa’s, but their defense has been far leakier. The shot profile also leans toward chances at both ends. Genoa average 2.9 shots on target per match, while Venezia average 4.3, so Venezia’s volume is the stronger base. Genoa have scored only five goals from that modest output, while Venezia have six from a much stronger chance set. That split fits a game where the market underestimates scoring variance and where a 2-1 type result matches the projected shape well.
Our Genoa vs Venezia prediction is Genoa 2-1 Venezia. We like Over 2.5 goals at -112 or better, with the scoring gap between expected goals and actual goals giving the match room to run above the market. Genoa’s attack is modest, but Venezia’s defensive numbers keep the upside alive.
