SERIE A
Napoli enter with a 2-0-2 league record and slightly better underlying attack than their results suggest, while Frosinone are 2-1-1 and have outperformed their expected points so far. Napoli average 4 shots on target per match to Frosinone’s 5.5, but Frosinone’s xGA is much worse than their actual goals conceded. That gap makes Napoli the likelier winner, while the total looks more contained than the market’s scoring expectation.
Napoli should edge a 2-1 result, with the better value in a controlled total rather than a heavy win market. Under 3.5 goals is supported by both teams’ early-season scoring rates and the gap between Frosinone’s actual goals allowed and expected goals allowed.
