SERIE A
Across six Cagliari matches and seven Bologna matches, the standings and the underlying numbers tell different stories. Cagliari sit sixth with a 4-1-1 record, but their xGA is 1.86 per match, far worse than their 0.50 actual goals allowed. Bologna are 14th at 1-2-4, yet their 1.56 xG per match is stronger than Cagliari’s 1.04, and their 0.86 goals scored per match trails that chance creation. The form gap is real, but the expected-goals gap is narrower than the table suggests. The shot profile also points to a close game. Cagliari average 3.8 shots on target per match, while Bologna sit at 3.6, so neither side is dominating volume. The conversion split is the sharper clue: Cagliari have six goals from limited shot quality, while Bologna have six goals from more expected production and should improve if finishing normalizes. That lines up with a cautious away lean and a projected 1-0 Bologna result rather than a loose attacking match.
Our Cagliari vs Bologna prediction is Cagliari 0-1 Bologna. We like Bologna draw no bet at a playable entry down to -156, because their chance creation is better than their results and Cagliari’s defense has run hot against xGA. The edge comes from regression, not a goal rush.
