Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 43.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 56.0%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 52.38%
• ●Model Edge: 3.62%
• ●Entry Threshold: -127
• ●Model Confidence: 65/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Wisconsin Badgers 24, Maryland Terrapins 17
• ●Projected Total: 41.0

Why This Position Stands Out

This game sets up as a stronger under position than the side markets suggest. Wisconsin has been much more efficient defensively, allowing 17.12 points per game and only 4.31 yards per play allowed, while Maryland has allowed 31.62 points per game and 5.68 yards per play allowed. That gap points to Wisconsin controlling the game state and limiting explosive scoring chances, especially if the Badgers can lean on a run game that has been steady enough to shorten possessions and keep Maryland’s offense off the field. The market is pricing a total in the low 40s, but the combination of Wisconsin’s defense and Maryland’s uneven scoring profile creates a modest scoring ceiling. Maryland has gone over in 75.0% of its games, yet that has often been tied to defensive leakage rather than sustained offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has been under in 62.5% of its games, and its defense gives this matchup a more conservative shape. The edge is not huge, but the under appears slightly mispriced relative to the teams’ scoring profiles and the likely pace of play.