Northwestern Wildcats vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 47.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 57%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 53.5%
• ●Model Edge: 3.5%
• ●Entry Threshold: -133
• ●Model Confidence: 64/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Ohio State Buckeyes 31, Northwestern Wildcats 14
• ●Projected Total: 45

Why This Position Stands Out

This game sets up well for an under because Ohio State’s defense has been allowing only 15.5 points per game and 4.47 yards per play, while Northwestern has been efficient enough to move the ball but still faces a clear step up in class. The Buckeyes’ offense is strong, but their home games have not always pushed into extreme scoring territory, and the market has settled into a total that already reflects respect for both offenses. That creates a narrow but real opening if the game flow leans toward Ohio State controlling possession and limiting Northwestern’s chances.

Matchup Overview

Ohio State enters with the stronger overall profile on both sides of the ball, averaging 36.63 points and 474.8 yards per game while surrendering just 15.5 points and 273.5 yards per game. Northwestern has also been productive, posting 33.63 points and 438.1 yards per game with a run game that averages 200.9 rushing yards per contest, but its defense has been more vulnerable, especially against better offenses. The contrast suggests Ohio State should generate enough scoring to win comfortably, while Northwestern may struggle to keep pace if the Buckeyes tighten up early and force longer drives.