Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags Prediction - November 5, 2026

Matchup Overview

Fairfield enters with a modest predictive profile and a lower offensive rating than Vermont. The Stags’ KenPom numbers show an offense that has struggled to separate from average, while the defense is not strong enough to offset that weakness consistently. That combination makes them vulnerable if the opponent can score efficiently in half-court possessions. Vermont’s numbers are a bit better across the board, and that slight edge is enough to matter in a tight market. The Catamounts’ better offensive efficiency and stronger defensive efficiency suggest they are the more balanced team. In a matchup that should play close, that balance is the reason the road side offers value.

Market Trends

• ●Fairfield Stags have a 12-16-1 record against the spread and a 13-16 over/under record.
• ●Vermont Catamounts have a 4-11-1 record against the spread and an 8-7-1 over/under record.

Prediction Summary

Vermont is the sharper side in this matchup and the best value comes with the Catamounts on the moneyline at plus money. The Catamounts own the better efficiency profile, and that edge should show up in a competitive game that stays relatively tight throughout. My projection is Vermont 71, Fairfield 67, with the road team winning outright and the game finishing below the posted total.