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Albany enters at 1-0 after a 74-67 win over Rhode Island College, while Merrimack is 0-1 after a 74-81 loss to Massachusetts Lowell. Albany’s stat line is built around better shot-making and volume production: 74.0 points per game, 44.8% shooting, and 47.0 rebounds per game. Merrimack’s first game showed more offensive issues, with 49.0 points per game, 35.2% shooting, and only 30.0 rebounds per game. The efficiency split is still worth noting. Merrimack’s KenPom offensive rating of 98.7 and defensive rating of 105.9 are better than Albany’s 95.7 and 111.8, which is part of why the road team is priced as the favorite. But Albany’s rebounding edge, home setting, and more stable scoring profile give the Great Danes a realistic path to control enough possessions to pull the game out late.
Albany is projected to win a close home game, 71-68, behind better scoring volume, stronger rebounding, and enough offensive shot creation to offset Merrimack’s modest efficiency edge. The model makes Albany a small value side on the moneyline, with the projected game landing just above 139 total points and the Great Danes coming through at home.
