Fiorentina vs Juventus: Preview, Lineups & Analysis

Randal Kolo Muani vs Radu Drăgușin

Kolo Muani has had more chances than anyone at Juventus and taken almost none of them. He has one league goal from more than 3.4 xG, he's missed five big chances, the most in the squad, and his shots on target have been worth only 1.9 xGOT.

That suggests the finishing, not just the luck, has been the problem.

Drăgușin has played every league minute for Fiorentina. He leads the squad with 5.7 clearances, 1.1 blocks and 9.5 defensive contributions per 90, and he's their best defender in a back line that has conceded 23 goals.

Kolo Muani did score on Thursday, set up by Woltemade, and his movement still creates chances. The question is whether he takes them against Fiorentina's most reliable defender.

Edge: Drăgușin. Until Kolo Muani's finishing improves, the defender has the better record in this duel.

Nicolò Fagioli vs Douglas Luiz

Fagioli runs Fiorentina's midfield against his former club. He completes 53.9 passes and 10.7 line-breaking passes per 90, both the highest in the squad, and he's the player who connects Fiorentina's defence to Mastantuono and Njie.

Douglas Luiz does the same job for Juventus, and he's been their best player. He has created 17 chances, four of them big chances, both team highs, and he leads Juve's squad in match rating.

The difference is the system. Fagioli has two midfielders alongside him in a three, while Douglas Luiz and Koopmeiners will be outnumbered in central midfield. Koopmeiners also played 90 minutes on Thursday.

Edge: Fagioli. Fiorentina's extra midfielder gives him time Douglas Luiz won't get.

Franco Mastantuono vs Jhon Lucumí

Mastantuono is Fiorentina's most dangerous attacker. He has four goals from 3.3 xG, and his shots on target have been worth 3.9 xGOT, so he's placing them well. He also leads the squad with 18 chances created, 4.3 shots and 2.4 successful dribbles per 90.

He'll be cutting in from the right towards Lucumí, the left-sided centre-back in Juve's back four. Lucumí leads Juventus with 1.7 interceptions per 90 and is one of their best passers, but he's also on three yellow cards, the most in the squad.

Cabal will have to stop Mastantuono getting inside, and if he can't, Lucumí has to step out of the line to meet him.

Edge: Mastantuono. He's the one Fiorentina player who can beat Juve's defence on his own.

Who controls central midfield?

This is a 4-3-3 against a 4-4-2, and that gives Fiorentina a three-against-two in the middle. Fagioli can drop between the centre-backs or sit in front of them, while Cher Ndour and Marco Brescianini push up either side of Douglas Luiz and Koopmeiners.

Juventus average 58% possession and allow just 9 shots per match, and their 0.71 xGA per match is the lowest in Serie A. To keep that up, Sarr and Kerim Alajbegović will have to tuck inside and help their two central midfielders.

That leaves room out wide. If Juve's wide midfielders come inside, Fiorentina's full-backs, Jiménez and João Mário, have space to advance. Jiménez already has two goals and two assists from right-back.

My view: Fiorentina should win the midfield battle on numbers. Whether they turn that into chances depends on how much space Juve's narrow shape leaves on the flanks.

Can Juventus create enough?

Juve's attack ranks 15th in Serie A for xG and 16th for big chances (19). Their goals have come from everywhere except their strikers: Bremer and Edon Zhegrova lead the way with two each, and Zhegrova has played only 251 minutes. Woltemade has yet to score in the league.

Their main weapon is the cross. Juve average 22.8 crosses per match, second in the league for accurate crosses, and they've won 82 corners, the most in Serie A. Bremer, with two goals, is their main target.

That suits this opponent. Fiorentina make only 20.5 clearances per match, 15th in Serie A, and De Gea's save percentage is just 58.9%. If Juve get shots on target, they're more likely to go in here than elsewhere.

My view: Juve won't create much from open play, but crosses, corners and De Gea's form give them a route. Zhegrova off the bench is their best source of goals in the final half-hour.

Can Fiorentina break down the best defence in Serie A?

Juventus have conceded only 7.09 xGA in ten games and kept five clean sheets, the most in the league. Vicario makes just 1.5 saves per match, fewer than any other Serie A goalkeeper, because so few shots reach him.

Fiorentina take 16.4 shots per match, but many of them come from distance. They have 45.6% possession and have scored only one set-piece goal all season, so they need to create in open play.

Their best route is through Mastantuono and Njie running at Juve's full-backs, with Fagioli finding them between the lines. Juve's legs are the other factor: eight of their predicted XI played on Thursday, and Fiorentina have had three more days of rest.

My view: Fiorentina will find it hard to create clear chances, but the second half could open up as Juve tire.

This should be tight. Juve give up so little that Fiorentina will need something special from Mastantuono, and Fiorentina's goalkeeping makes them vulnerable to the crosses and corners Juve rely on. One goal could decide it.

I'd still back Juventus to find it. Their defence is the best in the league by some distance, and even with a weak attack, they have more ways to score here than usual: set pieces, a struggling goalkeeper and Zhegrova from the bench.

The risk is fatigue and Fiorentina's numbers in midfield. If Juve's legs go after an hour, Fiorentina's extra man in the middle could tell.

My preference is a narrow Juventus win, and the ATS Quantitative Model agrees, projecting a 1-0. The Fiorentina vs Juventus matchup page has the current pricing.