Premier League Gameweek 10 Takeaways: City Fade, Clinical Liverpool & United's Chaos
Updated November 9, 2026
Updated November 9, 2026
Nottingham Forest have spent the season creating chances and losing games. On Saturday they flipped the script, beating Manchester City on the one afternoon the xG went against them. Elsewhere, Palace outcreated Liverpool and lost, and Chelsea showed again how little they have without João Pedro.
No team in the Premier League has fallen further short of its numbers than Nottingham Forest. They’ve created 18.52 xG this season and scored nine goals. So, naturally, they finally secured just their second win of the season on Saturday on the day the chances went against them. Forest had 22% of the ball and 0.98 xG to City’s 1.04, but the much-maligned Liam Delap scored a brace as the Reds ran out 3-1 winners.
While positive regression was due for Forest, the irony is surely not lost on Oliver Glasner and his coaching staff that their first win since early September came with their backs firmly against the wall.
For City, it’s three straight league defeats, after losing at Villa and at home to Brighton, and they’re now six points behind Arsenal.
They created 5.47 xG in that run and scored twice. Erling Haaland has one goal from 1.57 xG. City still lead the league in xG difference, but they’re now 7¢ (+1329) for the title on Polymarket, against 77¢ (-335) for Arsenal. With the trip to the Emirates on November 29 and the result of City's appeal against the charges brought against them still to come, I’m not going anywhere near City in the league winner's market. Avoid, or sell while you still can.
Crystal Palace created 2.65 xG at Selhurst Park and still lost by two. Liverpool, held to 2.0 xG, finally took their chances.
Alexis Mac Allister headed in Dominik Szoboszlai’s cross before half time in a half dominated by Palace, before Florian Wirtz scored his first Premier League goal from Bradley Barcola’s pass early in the second half. The German then set up Alexander Isak to secure the three points for Andoni Iraola's side. While Eddie Nketiah got one back from the spot after a questionable penalty decision, it merely served as a consolation.
Palace are now rooted to the bottom of the table, and their defense is to blame. Perhaps it is understandable that they should be struggling having lost Maxence Lacroix and Marc Guehi to Chelsea and Manchester City respectively in the last year, but their chances of survival are being severely hampered by a unit that has allowed 26.58 xG, three more than any other side in the division.
Something needs to change at Selhurst Park, and it looks like Pierre Sage will be the one to pay the price. The Frenchman's short reign as manager could be coming to an end as soon as today, with the Palace heirarchy lining up former Tottenham manager Thomas Frank as his replacement.
Tottenham’s three-game winning run ended at Elland Road, and in all honesty, it wasn’t even close. Leeds out-created them 3.01 xG to 0.79, with Noah Okafor coming off the bench to score the winner in the 79th minute and extinguish Spurs' hopes after a blunt performance.
That was the risk I flagged before kickoff. Spurs have 15.28 xG this season, but 3.9 of it came against a Palace side that played 77 minutes with 10 men. In their other nine games they average about 1.3 xG. They’re 11th on 12 points, and their -1.8 xG difference demonstates neither under, nor overperformance based on their numbers so far this season.
Leeds move up to ninth. Daniel Farke’s side have 14 points from 14.6 expected points, right where their chances say they should be. Their win on Saturday ends a run of five games without a win in all competitions.
Sunderland have been one of the league’s unluckiest sides, and on Saturday they finally got the result their football deserved. They beat Chelsea 1-0 with 2.21 xG to 0.77, with Enzo Le Fée’s penalty enough to secure victory.
A week earlier they’d lost 3-1 at Coventry despite 3.5 xG, with Régis Le Bris’ side scoring eight goals from a whopping 17.66 xG this season. This would indicate that their current league position is built on a lie. Back the Black Cats to start climbing the table after finally getting the monkey off their back.
Chelsea’s problem is the No. 9 they don’t have. João Pedro has missed the last three league games with a thigh injury, and Chelsea have scored twice in that run. Before he got hurt, they’d scored 17 in seven games, and he had a hand in eight of them with five goals and three assists.
At the Stadium of Light, Xabi Alonso started Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and Pedro Neto with no recognised striker. Chelsea had 69% of the ball, but could only muster one big chance.
Danny Welbeck and Emanuel Emegha offer an entirely different profile to Pedro, whose stock is rising even while he remains on the sidelines. The Blues sorely miss his ability to drop deep and link up with Rogers and Palmer, and it must be alarming for Chelsea fans to see just how reliant Xabi Alonso's system is upon the availability of the Brazilian.
I expected goals at both ends at Old Trafford on Sunday, but not eight of them. The xG finished 3.26 to 2.85, by far the highest combined total of the weekend.
In a game notable for just how open it was throughout, both teams found borderline comical ways to shoot themselves in the foot as the Stretford End rubbed its eyes collectively, unable to believe what it was witnessing.
The United defense once again rolled out the red carpet for an opponent early on, with Alysson and Jackson putting Vila 2-0 up inside 4 minutes, before a daft sliding challenge from Kamara gave Bruno the chance to pull one back from the spot. Once the United captain had converted, it was one way traffic and United got a deserved equaliser through Youri Tielemans.
But then the second half arrived and momentum shifted again. Dalot gave away a penalty that John McGinn coolly converted, before Lenny Yoro's bizarre header allowed Leon Goretzka to restore Villa's two goal advantage. But just as in the first half, United came back, with stoppage time goals from Joshua Zirkzee and Patrick Dorgu sending Old Trafford into ecstasy.
A second improbable comeback in a week doesn’t hide United’s clear weaknesses. That’s one league win in 10 for Michael Carrick’s side, and they still haven’t kept a clean sheet in the Premier League this season, with 19 goals conceded. Villa’s makeshift back four, with Victor Lindelöf at right-back, let in four. They’re 10th on 13 points, but their -3.7 xG difference looks more like a bottom-half side.
The Premier League returns from international break on 21st November, with Manchester City taking on Fulham at the Etihad. Manchester United's hotly anticipated trip to Anfield on Sunday 22nd November is the biggest match of the week.
