COLLEGE BASKETBALL
DePaul comes in with the stronger analytic profile. The Blue Demons score 75.0 points per game, shoot 39.3% from the field, and allow 58.0 points per game through one game. Their KenPom numbers are also solid: 108.7 offensive rating, 94.1 defensive rating, and a positive net rating that signals a team capable of controlling both ends. Alabama A&M has looked efficient in its small sample, averaging 90.0 points, 50.0% shooting, and 51.0 rebounds per game while allowing 57.0 points per game. The concern is schedule quality and sample size: those numbers came against weaker opposition, while DePaul’s profile suggests a much tougher test. The Bulldogs’ 17.4% three-point shooting is a red flag if they fall behind and need perimeter scoring to respond.
DePaul should control the game on talent and defensive efficiency, but the market has already priced that reality in heavily enough to make the underdog side the only position with a possible edge. The projection is DePaul 78, Alabama A&M 61, with the Bulldogs needing an unusual shooting night and a lower-possession game to threaten an upset. The most reasonable call is Alabama A&M on the moneyline at a very long number, while the score projection still favors DePaul by a comfortable margin.
