The Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech Red Raiders will meet in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff at the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day. Oregon cruised in the opening round of the tournament at home and will head across the country to face a well-rested Texas Tech team that had a first-round bye. Here, I break down this New Year’s Day bowl matchup and give you my Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction from the Orange Bowl.
Our Oregon vs Texas Tech Pick
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN
Oregon vs Texas Tech Odds
- Spread: Oregon +1.5
- Total: 53.5
- Moneyline: Oregon -110, Texas Tech -110
Key Storylines
The Oregon Ducks put a quick end to the chances of a Cinderella story for the James Madison Dukes in this year’s College Football Playoff. The Ducks outscored the Dukes 34-6 in the first half of that game and were never really challenged by the 12-seed in the CFP. Oregon will face a much tougher test in this matchup and the Ducks will use their experience in big games in the Big Ten to try and overcome the Red Raiders for a spot in the semifinals.
Texas Tech got a first-round bye in this year’s CFP by virtue of winning the Big 12 and finishing fourth in the pre-playoff rankings. The Red Raiders held their final four opponents to single digits on the scoreboard to earn their spot in the top four. That streak included two blowout wins over a BYU team that was a contender for an at-large bid. A defensive showing even close to that level from the Red Raiders could send them to the Peach Bowl and the final four.
Quarterback Play
Dante Moore is the quarterback for the Ducks. Moore threw for over 300 yards in his first career CFP start against James Madison. He threw two interceptions, which is something he will need to avoid doing in this game against a much better defensive team in Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are led by quarterback Behren Morton. Morton completed 201 of his 300 pass attempts this season with 22 touchdown passes and just 4 interceptions. Morton’s ability to take care of the ball has helped Texas Tech win with plenty of room left for error and the Texas Tech quarterback will have to protect the ball against an elite team in this contest.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Oregon is 3-0 all-time against Texas Tech, with their last meeting coming in 2023.
- Oregon is 9-4 against the spread going into this quarterfinal game.
- The Red Raiders went 12-1 against the spread this year, the best record in college football.
- Oregon is 7-6 to the over going into the Orange Bowl.
- The under has hit in 8 of Texas Tech’s 13 games this year.
Oregon vs Texas Tech Model Projection
Final Thoughts
