Updated September 11, 2026
Iowa State and No. 21 Iowa renew the Cy-Hawk rivalry on Saturday, September 12, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. The Cyclones have won the last two meetings, including a 16-13 victory last season.
Both teams cruised in Week 1, with Iowa State beating Southeast Missouri State 38-10 and Iowa shutting out Northern Illinois 40-0. Now, new Cyclones head coach Jimmy Rogers gets his first taste of the rivalry against Kirk Ferentz, who's entering his 28th season at Iowa.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where we see the best value in Saturday night's Cy-Hawk showdown.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I know Iowa and Iowa State both put up plenty of points in Week 1, but I’m not expecting that to carry over here. Six of the last seven Cy-Hawk games have stayed under 40.5 points, including three that didn’t even reach 30. Iowa also held Northern Illinois to just 120 total yards in its opener, and Phil Parker always seems to have this defense ready to go. With this being a rivalry game and both teams taking a big step up in competition, I think we see another low-scoring one.”
Under 40.5 Total Points Is Priced Around 48¢
Polymarket currently has the under 40.5 priced around 48¢, while our model gives it a 58% chance of hitting, creating a 10% edge at the current price. The model projects Iowa to win 24-13, with the two teams combining for just 37 points.
Iowa May Have to Lean on Its Defense Again
Iowa scored 40 points in Week 1, but there are still some questions about how much we can trust this offense against better competition. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are still splitting time at quarterback, which could lead to a run-heavy approach with Kamari Moulton and fewer possessions overall. On the other side, Iowa's defense ranked among the top four in the Big Ten in both points and yards allowed per game last season under Phil Parker. Despite losing plenty of production, the Hawkeyes still have experienced pieces like safety Zach Lutmer, cornerback Deshaun Lee and linebacker Jayden Montgomery, and they opened 2026 by holding Northern Illinois to just 120 total yards of offense.
Recommended Prediction:
Under 40.5
Current Market Price:
48¢
Model Win Probability:
58%
Market-Implied Probability:
48%
Model Edge:
10%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Iowa still has some uncertainty at quarterback, with Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski splitting time in Week 1. Brown completed 12 of 20 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown, while Hecklinski went 7 of 16 for 76 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
With neither quarterback separating himself yet, expect Iowa to lean heavily on Kamari Moulton. The senior rushed for 183 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries against Northern Illinois after putting up 878 yards and five touchdowns last season.
Iowa State should provide a much tougher challenge on the ground, though. The Cyclones held Southeast Missouri State to just 67 rushing yards on 45 carries in their opener. Still, if Iowa sticks with a run-heavy approach and gives Moulton plenty of carries, that should help shorten the game and give the under a better chance of hitting.
Jaylen Raynor brings plenty of experience to Iowa State after transferring from Arkansas State, where he threw for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. He had a solid Cyclones debut, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns while adding two more scores on the ground, finishing with a 187.9 passer rating and 75.3 QBR.
Still, Iowa State's offense wasn't quite as dominant as the 38-10 final score suggests. The Cyclones finished with just 303 total yards, punted five times and had the ball for only 23 minutes.
Things should get much tougher against Phil Parker's Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes held eventual national champion Indiana to just 20 points last season, including only 10 through three quarters, and opened 2026 by shutting out Northern Illinois. Iowa lost plenty of production from last year's unit, but players like safety Zach Lutmer and linebacker Cam Buffington give Parker some experienced pieces to build around.
The short answer is probably not. Iowa State has gotten the better of Iowa in each of the last two years, including a 16-13 win last season, and you have to think the Hawkeyes have had this one circled for a while. Now they get the Cyclones at Kinnick Stadium for a Saturday night matchup, with Polymarket giving Iowa State just a 16% chance to pull off the upset.
I also think the way this game sets up favors Iowa. The Hawkeyes are perfectly comfortable winning with defense, field position and a heavy dose of the run game, which is usually what this rivalry turns into anyway. Last year's teams combined for only 452 yards, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another game with long drives and limited possessions.
That's a big reason why I'm staying away from the side and backing under 40.5 instead. Check out our college football predictions for more Week 2 picks and analysis.
