Updated December 20, 2025
The Pitt Panthers and Penn State Nittany Lions will meet in an in-state rivalry game in college basketball on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers come into this game with a 6-6 record and they will try to get above the .500 mark for the season with a win here against a Penn State team that has dropped two straight games. Before tip-off from Hershey, you will find my analysis for this game below, which includes my Pitt vs Penn State prediction.
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Penn State enters this rivalry game with an 8-3 record and has faced quality opponents in Big Ten play. Their recent losses include a close result against a ranked Michigan State team and a lopsided loss at Indiana. But the Nittany Lions continue to average strong offensive numbers and they pound the glass. Penn State's non-conference strength of schedule is one of the 10 weakest in college basketball so far this year, according to KenPom, so they may struggle against a respectable opponent again here.
Pitt is 6-6 on the season and they are coming off a 103-63 win over Binghamton, powered by scorching three-point shooting and balanced scoring. But recent losses to solid teams like Villanova and Quinnipiac are cause for concern. Pitt is averaging just 73.5 points per game this year and will try to elevate their game offensively to get a win that would move them to 7-6.
This game is being played at a neutral location in central Pennsylvania. It will be interesting to see what the crowd breakdown is ahead of this game, as both teams have loyal followings in the state. The team that has more vocal support in their corner could have the advantage in this matchup.
Score Projection: Pitt 78 – Penn State 74
Win Probability: Pitt 53%, Penn State 47%
This is going to be a very close game throughout between two Pennsylvania-based programs that are from power conferences but are not playing like elite teams at all. I'm going to take Pitt in this game, as I'm concerned about Penn State's ability to compete against good teams. The Nittany Lions' horrible non-conference strength of schedule is a huge red flag for me, and I'll take Pitt to get the win in Hershey on Sunday.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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