5 Most Important College Football Games in Week 4
Updated September 24, 2026
Updated September 24, 2026
Week 4 might be the best college football slate we’ve had so far this season. The schedule is loaded with ranked matchups, conference games and several teams facing a real step up in competition for the first time.
From No. 1 Texas going into Knoxville to Oregon and USC meeting in a huge Big Ten matchup, there’s a lot that could change by Saturday night. With that in mind, here are the five most important college football games in Week 4 and what each one could mean for the playoff race.
Texas may have already gotten past its toughest test of the season, knocking off then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 with a huge fourth-quarter comeback. But the Longhorns are just getting into what college football analyst Phil Steele ranked as the toughest schedule in the country.
That continues Saturday with a trip to Knoxville to face Josh Heupel and No. 14 Tennessee. Neyland Stadium should be rocking, and President Donald Trump is also expected to be in attendance. We break down the matchup and our model’s pick in our full Texas vs Tennessee prediction.
No. 1 Texas is currently priced as a 64¢ favorite on Polymarket, with Tennessee at 37¢. The bigger question is how much we actually know about the Volunteers. They’re 3-0, but those wins have come against Furman, Kennesaw State and Georgia Tech.
Saturday should tell us a lot more about Tennessee. The Vols get their first real step up in competition, while Texas gets another major test as it moves into the toughest part of its schedule.
The second-biggest matchup to watch in Week 4 brings together a pair of former Pac-12 rivals, only now with the Big Ten and College Football Playoff race at stake. No. 20 Oregon enters as a 60¢ road favorite on Polymarket, with No. 12 USC trading at 41¢.
For Oregon, the pressure is already starting to build. The Ducks entered the year as a popular preseason national championship pick, but some of that hype disappeared after giving up 39 points to Oklahoma State in their first loss of the year. A second loss before October could be disastrous, especially with a road trip to Ohio State still waiting later in the season.
USC is 3-0, but the Trojans haven't exactly looked unbeatable either. They escaped Rutgers with a 42-35 win last week, which doesn't look quite as impressive considering the Scarlet Knights had already lost at home to UMass.
That makes Saturday a pretty big measuring stick for both teams. Oregon can't afford to fall to 2-2, while USC finally gets a chance to show whether it's a legitimate playoff contender in what could be a pivotal year for Lincoln Riley.
For a closer look at the matchup, check out our full Oregon vs USC prediction and model projection.
The first thing that stands out here is the price. No. 21 Florida is a 60¢ favorite on Polymarket, with No. 4 Ole Miss all the way down at 41¢ despite the Rebels coming off a 32-24 win over then-No. 7 LSU.
Florida is still in its first season under Jon Sumrall, and we haven't seen the Gators tested all that much yet. They did look impressive in their first SEC road game last week, though, going into Auburn and coming away with a 44-39 win to improve to 3-0.
Ole Miss now has to turn around and hit the road immediately after an emotional win in the Lane Kiffin Bowl. The Rebels led LSU 24-7 at halftime, watched the Tigers come all the way back to tie it and then pulled away late for the eight-point win.
The market certainly seems to think this could be a letdown spot for Ole Miss. Florida now gets a chance to prove it belongs in the playoff conversation and take another big step toward what would be the program's first College Football Playoff appearance.
Check out our full Ole Miss vs Florida prediction for our model projection and pick.
Next up is another Top 25 showdown in the Big Ten, with No. 17 Iowa heading to Ann Arbor to face No. 18 Michigan. Despite being ranked one spot lower, the Wolverines are priced as a pretty clear 67¢ favorite on Polymarket, with Iowa at 34¢.
Michigan's season got off to a shaky start with that controversial 13-12 win over Western Michigan, but Kyle Whittingham's team responded with a much more impressive 17-10 win over then-No. 11 Oklahoma. Bryce Underwood led the Wolverines with 87 rushing yards in that one, while the defense held the Sooners to just 10 points.
Iowa hasn't had nearly as much drama on its way to 3-0. Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 55-0 win over Northern Iowa and now get their first real test against a ranked opponent.
Saturday should tell us a lot about where both teams fit in the Big Ten race. Michigan has already answered some questions after its shaky opener, while Iowa has a chance to leave Ann Arbor 4-0 with a Top 25 road win on its résumé. For our model's take on the matchup, check out our full Iowa vs Michigan prediction.
You could make a case for a few other games in this final spot, but it's hard to leave out a ranked SEC matchup under the lights in Death Valley. No. 10 LSU is priced as a heavy 77¢ favorite on Polymarket, with No. 23 Texas A&M all the way down at 24¢.
There's also some revenge involved here. Texas A&M went into Baton Rouge last year and crushed LSU 49-25, a loss that led to Brian Kelly being fired the following day. Now Lane Kiffin gets his first shot at the Aggies as LSU's head coach.
More importantly, both teams are coming off losses. LSU fell 32-24 to Ole Miss in the Lane Kiffin Bowl, while Texas A&M suffered a shocking 31-21 home loss to unranked Kentucky that dropped the Aggies from No. 9 to No. 23.
That puts a lot on the line Saturday night. Both teams entered the season with playoff expectations, and neither can afford another loss this early. For our model's take on the matchup, check out our full Texas A&M vs LSU prediction.
Want a closer look at the rest of the Week 4 slate? Check out our college football predictions for weekly game previews, ATS model projections and analysis for every major matchup.
