Italy vs Belgium Preview, Prediction & Analysis: Can Mancini's New Italy Contain De Bruyne?
Updated September 24, 2026
Updated September 24, 2026
Roberto Mancini returns to the Italy dugout on Friday, and fans of the Azzurri will be hoping he can bring back the glory days after 5 years starved of success.
Italy failed to qualify for a third consecutive World Cup, while Mark van Bommel inherits a Belgium team that reached this summer's quarter-finals. Belgium scored 14 goals at the tournament, but the new coach must manage several changes, including the absence of Thibaut Courtois. With Italy priced at 44¢ and Belgium at 31¢, the visitors' attacking experience makes this an intriguing early test of Mancini's rebuilt squad.
Why Our Model Sees Value
“Belgium's World Cup attack provides a more established reference point than Italy's new-look forward line, while the hosts must begin Mancini's second spell without Alessandro Bastoni and Federico Dimarco. Belgium still have veteran superstars Lukaku and De Bruyne available, as Van Bommel takes charge for the first time. Italy's home advantage makes them favorites, but Belgium's 30¢ price offers far better value.”
Belgium have the firepower to trouble Italy
Their 14 goals and 112 shots at the World Cup demonstrate their potential, although neither total should be treated as a direct forecast under Van Bommel.
Italy's defensive injuires are impactful
Bastoni is suspended and Dimarco is injured, leaving Mancini preparing a revised back four for his first competitive game in charge.
Courtois loss adds risk
Thibaut Courtois is sitting out the Nations League, while the new coaching staff must establish a defensive structure against an Italy side expected to return to a 4-3-3 under Mancini.
Recommended Trade
Belgium to win
Market Price
31¢
Model Win Probability:
34%
Market-implied Probability
31%
Model Edge:
3%
Buy Up To:
31¢
Mancini has named nine first-time call-ups in an expanded squad, combining established players such as Donnarumma, Barella and Tonali with younger options. His early training sessions have focused on a 4-3-3, although the final selection remains unsettled after withdrawals and injuries.
The biggest uncertainty concerns Italy's attack. Pio Esposito is competing with Moise Kean to start centrally, while Cambiaghi and Daniel Maldini have been tested in the wide positions. With four Nations League games in 11 days, Mancini must balance immediate results with evaluating players for the next international cycle as Italy look to get back on track after years of humiliation on the international stage.
Belgium reached the quarter-finals this summer but struggled when Spain denied them possession in dangerous areas. Belgium manaed just 0.37 xG from five shots in their 2-1 quarter-final defeat, compared with Spain's 2.08 xG from 17 attempts. That illustrates how effectively a strong midfield can limit Belgium's supply to its forwards, but a mediocre Italian midfield do not pose the same threat as the world class Spanish midfield.
Van Bommel still has De Bruyne, Lukaku, Tielemans and several younger attacking options in his first squad. De Bruyne's decision to continue internationally preserves an important creative presence during the transition, particularly against Italy's revised defensive line.
Dimarco's withdrawal and Bastoni's suspension force changes to two positions on Italy's left side. Calafiori is expected to play left-back in place of Dimarco, with Diego Coppola in contention to start centrally alongside Gianluca Mancini.
That arrangement gives Belgium a specific area to target. If Van Bommel can isolate Calafiori in wide defensive situations, De Bruyne's passing and the movement of Belgium's forwards could test a partnership that has had little time together. Conversely, Calafiori's ability to advance from the back would provide Italy with another means of escaping Belgium's pressure.
Courtois' absence is particularly significant because Belgium are integrating younger goalkeepers at the same time as changing managers. Senne Lammens, Mike Penders and Maarten Vandevoordt are among the options available to Van Bommel.
Lammens was called upon during Belgium's World Cup quarter-final after Courtois was injured, with a late handling error contributing to Spain's winner. That single incident does not establish a broader weakness, but the goalkeeper selection and defensive coordination will be worth watching in Van Bommel's first match.
Italy's challenge is to establish midfield control without leaving their revised defense exposed, particularly when Calafiori advances and Belgium can attack the space behind him. Belgium, meanwhile, must improve on the limited chance creation they produced against Spain while adapting to Van Bommel's approach.
Belgium offer much better value than Italy in this contest. The Azurri's's 45¢ price incorporates home advantage, but the defensive absences and uncertainty around Mancini's attacking selections leave plenty of scope for a superior Belgium team to outperform their 31¢ market probability.
Model Projected Score: Italy 1-2 Belgium
Best Trade: Belgium to win
