Türkiye vs France Preview, Match Analysis & Prediction: Can Zidane Start With a Win?
Updated September 24, 2026
Updated September 24, 2026
Türkiye host France in Kocaeli on Friday, September 25, as Zinedine Zidane takes charge of Les Bleus for the first time. France enter the UEFA Nations League after finishing fourth at the 2026 World Cup, while Vincenzo Montella must prepare Türkiye for a difficult opening fixture without several important attacking players.
The visitors have the attacking quality to win, but Zidane's first selection and France's defensive absences introduce uncertainty. With Under 3.5 goals priced at 57¢, the totals market offers an alternative to backing France outright in a hostile away environment.
Why We See Value
“Türkiye's missing creative players could make it difficult to reproduce their stronger World Cup attacking performances, while Zidane has had limited time to establish his approach and must manage several defensive absences. France have enough individual quality to win without necessarily producing an open, high-scoring game. Our provisional projection gives Under 3.5 goals a five-point advantage over the current price.”
Türkiye's attacking absences are significant
Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız are out, while Orkun Kökçü is also expected to miss the match because of a toe injury. This removes two established creative players and potentially a third midfield distributor.
France's recent xG has been highly variable
They generated just 0.31 xG in their World Cup semi-final defeat to Spain before producing 2.88 xG against England in the third-place playoff. Those matches illustrate their attacking range, although neither is directly representative of Zidane's new team playing in a hostile away environment in a low-profile tournament.
France's defensive injuries create some risk for the under
William Saliba and Ibrahima Konaté are unavailable, while Aurélien Tchouaméni was omitted because of fitness concerns. Türkiye may still find opportunities against a changed central defensive unit.
Recommended Trade
Under 3.5 Goals
Market Price
57¢
ATS Model Probability:
62%
Market-implied Probability
57%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
59¢
Zidane has introduced several new faces for his opening Nations League fixtures, including Jérémy Jacquet, Andy Diouf and Esteban Lepaul. Mbappé remains captain, with France otherwise able to call upon established attacking players such as Dembélé, Olise and Doué.
France's options give Zidane flexibility, although the absence of Tchouaméni and injuries in central defense may encourage a more measured approach away from home. Their ability to control possession and recover the ball quickly will be important against Türkiye's counterattacking threats.
The absence of Çalhanoğlu removes an experienced midfield distributor, while Yıldız's injury takes away an important attacking option. With Kökçü also unlikely to play, Güler could become Türkiye's principal route for progressing the ball into dangerous areas.
Montella still has Barış Alper Yılmaz and Kerem Aktürkoğlu available, but their effectiveness will depend on receiving service in positions where they can attack France's defensive line. If Türkiye struggle to establish possession in midfield, they may be forced to rely on transitions and set pieces rather than sustained attacking pressure.
Konaté's withdrawal and Saliba's absence leave Zidane with decisions to make at centre-back. Dayot Upamecano and Maxence Lacroix are among his available options, while Yoro has joined the squad as a late replacement. Jeremy Jacquet has impressed for Liverpool so far this season, but the more experienced pairing of Upamecano and Lacroix are the most likely starters.
Türkiye will look to exploit any uncertainty between France's defenders, particularly if Güler receives possession between the lines. The visitors' midfield therefore has an important defensive role: preventing Türkiye from creating the direct passing opportunities that could turn this into an open game.
France have sufficient attacking quality to begin Zidane's tenure with a victory, but their defensive changes and Türkiye's home advantage suggest this could be more competitive than the difference in squad depth implies.
Our preferred betting angle is Under 3.5 goals at 57¢, against a provisional 62% probability. The five-point indicative edge supports the selection under the stated assumptions, with 59¢ the maximum entry price that preserves a three-point gap. Mbappé's availability and both teams' confirmed midfield selections should be checked before kickoff.
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