Louisville vs Mississippi State Basketball ATS Pick & Prediction 11/25/21
Updated October 28, 2026
Updated October 28, 2026
The Louisville Cardinals and Mississippi State Bulldogs met on Thanksgiving night in the opening round of the 2021 Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship. Both teams entered the matchup with winning records, although neither had faced particularly demanding competition through the first few weeks of the season.
Louisville was 3-1 following a narrow victory over Detroit Mercy, while Mississippi State was undefeated at 4-0. The Bulldogs were slight favorites at -1, with the Cardinals getting one point on the spread.
This historical preview preserves the original betting odds, team statistics, and matchup analysis from November 25, 2021. A separate postgame section covers the final result and how the betting markets settled.
Game details | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | Louisville Cardinals vs Mississippi State Bulldogs |
Date | Thursday, November 25, 2021 |
Time | 9:30 PM ET |
Venue | Baha Mar Convention Center |
Location | Nassau, Bahamas |
Tournament | Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship |
TV | CBS Sports Network |
Louisville record | 3-1 |
Mississippi State record | 4-0 |
Original spread | Mississippi State -1 |
Final score | Louisville 72, Mississippi State 58 |
The original ATS.io article listed the following odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
Betting market | Louisville | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
Point spread | +1 | -1 |
Game total | Over 132.5 (-110) | Under 132.5 (-110) |
These are the historical betting lines published in the original November 25, 2021 preview. They are retained for reference and are no longer available.
Mississippi State entered as a narrow favorite despite playing away from home at a neutral venue.
The -120 moneyline implied a 54.5% chance of winning before adjusting for the sportsbook's margin. Louisville's +100 price implied a 50% probability.
The one-point spread reflected how closely matched the teams appeared entering the tournament.
The total of 132.5 suggested a relatively moderate-scoring game, particularly given Mississippi State's strong defensive numbers through four contests.
For additional historical lines and current matchups, visit our college basketball odds section.
The Thanksgiving matchup was an early opportunity for both teams to establish themselves against stronger opposition.
Louisville had won three of its first four games, while Mississippi State had opened the season with four consecutive victories.
Both teams had shown encouraging signs offensively, but the Bulldogs entered with considerably stronger defensive numbers.
The matchup also offered an interesting contrast in styles.
Louisville relied on its depth, rebounding, and ability to create turnovers. Mississippi State had been efficient shooting the basketball and had consistently limited opposing offenses.
Louisville entered the game averaging 73.5 points per contest while shooting 44.8% from the field.
The Cardinals were distributing the ball reasonably well, recording 14.0 assists per game.
Their defensive production included 39.8 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and 9.3 steals per contest.
However, Louisville had allowed 66.8 points per game, a figure that was noticeably higher than Mississippi State's defensive average.
Louisville team statistics | Average through four games |
|---|---|
Points scored | 73.5 |
Field-goal percentage | 44.8% |
Assists | 14.0 |
Points allowed | 66.8 |
Rebounds | 39.8 |
Blocks | 3.0 |
Steals | 9.3 |
The Cardinals had shown flashes of strong offensive play, but their previous game against Detroit Mercy raised some questions.
Louisville needed a late scoring run to escape with a 73-67 victory.
Against a Mississippi State team that had defended effectively, the Cardinals could face an even tougher challenge.
Louisville struggled to put away Detroit Mercy in its final game before traveling to the Bahamas.
The contest was tied at 67 with 1:39 remaining.
The Cardinals eventually hit a three-pointer with 1:17 left to take the lead and secure the victory.
Dre Davis led Louisville with 18 points and nine rebounds. He also contributed an assist and two steals.
Malik Williams added 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and two steals.
Detroit Mercy shot 40.7% from the field and 36.0% from three-point range.
The Titans also converted just 10 of their 16 free throws, missing opportunities to put additional pressure on Louisville.
The Cardinals ultimately found a way to win, but the performance highlighted areas that needed improvement before facing Mississippi State.
Mississippi State entered the tournament undefeated and had been particularly effective defensively.
The Bulldogs were allowing just 52.0 points per game through their opening four contests.
Offensively, they were averaging 76.0 points while shooting an impressive 52.0% from the field.
They were also recording 15.3 assists per game, suggesting that their strong shooting numbers were supported by good ball movement.
Mississippi State team statistics | Average through four games |
|---|---|
Points scored | 76.0 |
Field-goal percentage | 52.0% |
Assists | 15.3 |
Points allowed | 52.0 |
Rebounds | 40.5 |
Blocks | 4.0 |
Steals | 10.5 |
Mississippi State's defensive numbers were especially encouraging.
The Bulldogs had been active around the basket, controlled the glass, and generated turnovers.
Their ability to limit opposing offenses made them a difficult matchup for a Louisville team that had struggled to pull away from Detroit Mercy.
The Bulldogs entered the Louisville matchup following a convincing 66-46 victory over Morehead State.
The game was close during the first half, with Mississippi State leading by just one point at the break.
The Bulldogs took control after halftime, using a dominant second-half performance to secure a comfortable win.
Iverson Molinar led Mississippi State with 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and two steals.
D.J. Jeffries recorded a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds.
Mississippi State also delivered another strong defensive performance.
Morehead State shot just 33.3% from the field and 32.0% from three-point range.
The Eagles made 75.0% of their free throws but struggled to generate enough offense to stay competitive.
The Bulldogs' second-half performance demonstrated their ability to make adjustments and take control of a game defensively.
The original ATS.io preview included several historical betting trends for both teams.
These figures reflect the information available before the November 25 matchup.
Louisville's November record was impressive, but its recent performance against the spread was considerably less encouraging.
The Cardinals had also struggled against SEC opponents, making the matchup with Mississippi State an interesting test.
The Thursday betting trends suggested Louisville had historically been involved in higher-scoring games, although those results came against different opponents and should not be treated as a reliable prediction on their own.
Mississippi State entered with a stronger recent ATS record.
The Bulldogs had also been winning consistently, although their record against ACC opponents was less convincing.
Because the game was played at a neutral venue in the Bahamas, Mississippi State's Thursday home-game trend had limited direct relevance.
Three factors stood out entering the game: Mississippi State's defensive efficiency, Louisville's ability to rebound, and the Bulldogs' stronger recent performance against the spread.
Mississippi State had allowed just 52.0 points per game entering the matchup.
The Bulldogs had been effective at forcing difficult shots and limiting second-chance opportunities.
Louisville, meanwhile, had averaged 73.5 points but struggled offensively against Detroit Mercy.
The Cardinals needed better shot selection and more consistent ball movement to challenge Mississippi State's defense.
Their ability to score in transition could also prove important.
If Louisville could create turnovers and generate easier baskets, the Cardinals would have a better chance of overcoming Mississippi State's defensive advantage.
Both teams entered with strong rebounding numbers.
Louisville averaged 39.8 rebounds per contest, while Mississippi State averaged 40.5.
That suggested a competitive battle on the glass.
Malik Williams was an important presence for Louisville, while Mississippi State relied on several physical forwards to control the paint.
Second-chance points could be particularly valuable in a matchup expected to be closely contested.
The team that limited offensive rebounds and avoided unnecessary fouls would have an advantage.
The Bulldogs entered shooting 52.0% from the field, an excellent figure through four games.
Louisville had been considerably less efficient at 44.8%.
Mississippi State's advantage in shooting percentage was one reason the Bulldogs were favored.
However, those numbers came against relatively modest early-season competition.
Louisville represented a different defensive challenge, and maintaining that level of efficiency was far from guaranteed.
The recovered November 25 article contains the betting odds, team statistics, recent results, and historical ATS trends.
However, the supplied archive ends before Vincent Senick's final betting selection.
Consequently, the original pick and any accompanying confidence assessment cannot be confirmed.
The available pregame information offered arguments for both sides.
Mississippi State entered undefeated, had stronger defensive numbers, and was 10-5 ATS over its previous 15 games.
Louisville had more questions surrounding its recent performances, particularly after narrowly defeating Detroit Mercy.
However, the Bulldogs were still being tested against a stronger opponent than those they had faced earlier in the season.
The one-point spread showed that the betting market considered the teams closely matched.
Historical market favorite: Mississippi State -1
Original ATS.io pick: Not verified
The favorite should not be presented as Vincent Senick's official selection without recovering the missing final portion of the original article.
The following sections were added retrospectively to document the result and evaluate the historical betting markets.
Louisville defeated Mississippi State 72-58 on November 25, 2021, advancing to the championship game of the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship.
The Cardinals delivered one of their strongest performances of the young season, taking control in the first half and building a substantial lead.
Mississippi State entered undefeated but struggled offensively throughout the game.
Louisville's defense held the Bulldogs to just 33.3% shooting and only one made three-pointer.
Team | First half | Second half | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
Louisville | 41 | 31 | 72 |
Mississippi State | 25 | 33 | 58 |
Louisville led by 16 points at halftime and maintained a comfortable advantage through the second half.
The Cardinals improved to 4-1, while Mississippi State suffered its first loss and fell to 4-1.
Samuell Williamson delivered a season-high 15 points to lead the Cardinals.
Dre Davis added 12 points, while Jae'Lyn Withers contributed 11.
Malik Williams finished with eight points and 10 rebounds.
Williamson was particularly effective during the first half, scoring 10 consecutive Louisville points as part of a decisive 21-5 run.
That stretch helped the Cardinals establish a 29-12 advantage with 4:55 remaining before halftime.
Mississippi State never recovered.
Iverson Molinar scored a game-high 17 points for the Bulldogs.
Tolu Smith added 10 points and seven rebounds, while Shakeel Moore finished with nine points.
Mississippi State struggled badly from three-point range, making just one of its 15 attempts.
The Bulldogs also shot only 20-for-60 from the field.
Their inability to convert perimeter opportunities made it difficult to reduce Louisville's lead.
Statistic | Louisville | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
Points | 72 | 58 |
Field goals | 26-63 | 20-60 |
Field-goal percentage | 41.3% | 33.3% |
Three-pointers | 7-22 | 1-15 |
Three-point percentage | 31.8% | 6.7% |
Free throws | 13-22 | 17-23 |
Rebounds | 47 | 38 |
Assists | 10 | 7 |
Steals | 5 | 9 |
Turnovers | 15 | 11 |
Second-chance points | 22 | 6 |
Bench points | 36 | 10 |
Louisville's rebounding advantage was particularly important.
The Cardinals collected 47 rebounds compared with Mississippi State's 38 and dominated second-chance scoring 22-6.
Their bench also outscored Mississippi State's reserves 36-10.
Those advantages helped Louisville overcome its 15 turnovers and control the game.
The final score settled the archived betting markets as follows.
Betting market | Original line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
Louisville moneyline | +100 | Won |
Mississippi State moneyline | -120 | Lost |
Louisville spread | +1 | Won |
Mississippi State spread | -1 | Lost |
Over 132.5 | -110 | Lost |
Under 132.5 | -110 | Lost |
Correction: The teams combined for 130 points, so Under 132.5 won, while Over 132.5 lost.
Yes.
Louisville won by 14 points despite entering as a one-point underdog.
A Louisville +1 wager therefore covered by 15 points.
Mississippi State -1 lost.
Yes.
The Cardinals were listed at +100 on the moneyline.
A $100 winning wager at that price would have returned $100 in profit, plus the original stake.
The final score was 72-58, producing 130 combined points.
With the total set at 132.5, Under bettors won by 2.5 points.
The original selection cannot be confirmed because the archived article ends before the final pick.
Although Louisville +1 and Under 132.5 both won, neither should be credited to the original author without supporting documentation.
Louisville's performance differed significantly from what the early-season statistics suggested.
Mississippi State entered allowing only 52 points per game, but the Cardinals scored 41 in the first half alone.
Louisville's defense was equally important.
The Bulldogs had been shooting 52.0% entering the matchup, yet finished at just 33.3%.
Mississippi State's one made three-pointer was especially damaging.
The Cardinals also dominated the glass, creating 22 second-chance points and limiting Mississippi State to just six.
Louisville's depth provided another advantage, with its bench contributing 36 points.
The combination of defensive pressure, rebounding, and balanced scoring allowed the Cardinals to pull away.
Louisville defeated Mississippi State 72-58 at the Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, Bahamas.
Mississippi State was favored by one point, with Louisville listed at +1.
The original ATS.io article listed Louisville at +100 and Mississippi State at -120.
Yes. Louisville won by 14 points and comfortably covered the +1 spread.
The total was set at 132.5 points.
Under 132.5 won. The teams combined for 130 points.
Samuell Williamson scored 15 points, leading Louisville to victory.
Iverson Molinar scored 17 points.
The matchup took place at the Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, Bahamas.
Louisville entered 3-1, while Mississippi State was undefeated at 4-0.
No. Louisville represented the ACC and Mississippi State the SEC, with the teams meeting in a neutral-site tournament.
The final selection is missing from the recovered article and cannot be verified.
Louisville entered the Thanksgiving matchup as a narrow underdog, but the Cardinals delivered a convincing 72-58 victory.
Their defense held Mississippi State to 33.3% shooting, while strong rebounding and productive bench play created a decisive advantage.
The Cardinals covered the +1 spread, won outright at +100, and helped keep the game Under 132.5.
The result demonstrated how quickly early-season statistics can change when teams face stronger opposition.
→ Our Take: Louisville was the clear winner on both the scoreboard and the spread, beating Mississippi State by 14 points. Under 132.5 also cashed. The original ATS.io pick remains unverified, so these results should be recorded as historical betting outcomes rather than credited as confirmed selections.
For more college basketball analysis and betting predictions, visit our college basketball picks section.
Updated October 28, 2026
