The Monday night Big 12 college basketball slate delivers one of the most high-profile games of the season with the No. 3 Houston Cougars visiting the No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones on February 16, 2026. This matchup features two of the nation’s best teams, with Houston bringing elite defense on the road and Iowa State entering with its high-level scoring in Ames. Both teams are battle-tested and poised for a tough conference game that could have major implications for Big 12 standings and NCAA Tournament seedings if they remain on course. Here, I break down this contest and bring you my Houston vs Iowa State prediction.
Our Houston vs Iowa State Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Cougars @ Iowa State Cyclones
- Date & Time: Monday, February 16, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Players
Iowa State Cyclones
- Milan Momcilovic – Team’s leading scorer at around 18.4 points per game with good size on the perimeter and consistent 3-point threat. He gives the Cyclones a go-to scoring option on offense.
- Joshua Jefferson – A versatile forward who contributes around 16.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and over 5 assists per game, making him a dynamic presence on both ends of the floor.
- Tamin Lipsey – Efficient facilitator and defender, averaging double-digit scoring with over 5 assists per game, helping steer the Cyclones’ offense.
Houston Cougars
- Emanuel Sharp – Houston’s scoring catalyst at about 16.6 points per game with explosive shooting ability, capable of taking over games offensively.
- Milos Uzan – Key secondary scorer and ball mover with steady contributions in points and assists.
- Kingston Flemings – Freshman standout who has been a consistent scoring threat recently, particularly effective in road games.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Houston | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 78.3 | 84.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 61.3 | 64.5 |
| Team Field Goal % | 45% | 51% |
| Rebounds per Game | 37.0 | 36.6 |
| Assists Per Game | 15.4 | 18.2 |
These numbers paint a vivid picture of what to expect Monday night. Iowa State’s offense has been prolific all year, scoring more than Houston on average, while Houston boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, allowing just around 61 points per contest. The Cyclones shoot a higher field goal percentage and assist more, indicating excellent ball movement, while the Cougars thrive on limiting opponent efficiency and generating turnovers.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Iowa State boasts a strong home presence at Hilton Coliseum with a perfect home record this season and has covered spread lines against Houston in recent meetings. The all-time series is relatively balanced, though Houston won the most recent meeting in 2025. ATS performance this season shows Houston is 14-11 against the spread this year, while Iowa State is 14-10-1 against the spread going into this matchup.
Houston vs Iowa State Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
