Updated August 30, 2026
Venus Williams returns to Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday night for a first-round meeting with Sofia Kenin, pairing 2 former US Open champions whose current results are far removed from their title-winning years. Williams is making her 26th appearance in the tournament’s singles draw, while Kenin arrives after producing her best stretch of hard-court tennis in several months. The occasion and crowd should favor Williams emotionally, but the question will be whether or not she can hold up physically.
Williams and Kenin are scheduled for approximately 9 p.m. ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium. It will be the first main-tour singles meeting between the 2 Americans, although Kenin previously faced Williams in World TeamTennis. The absence of meaningful head-to-head data makes current form, physical condition, and surface performance especially important.
At the time of writing, Polymarket prices Williams at 14%, implying an 86% probability for Kenin. That is a steep price for a player who owns a losing record this season, but Williams’ recent numbers explain why the gap is so large.
Williams is 0-11 in singles during 2026 and has not won a singles match since July 2025. Her latest appearance ended in a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Emiliana Arango in the first round of Cincinnati. Arango needed only 65 minutes to finish that match, with Williams unable to establish enough consistency behind her serve or shorten points on favorable terms. Williams was ranked No. 615 at the time of that tournament.
There have been competitive moments for Williams during the season despite the lack of victories. At the Australian Open, Williams won the opening set against Olga Danilovic and led 4-0 in the deciding set before losing 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4. That match showed that her first-strike tennis can still trouble a capable opponent for stretches. Sustaining that standard across a full match has been the issue.
Kenin has hardly enjoyed a smooth season herself. The 27-year-old enters the US Open ranked No. 110 with a 6-20 singles record. She has been vulnerable after gaining early control, and several defeats have followed a similar pattern, with a strong opening set followed by a decline in service effectiveness and shot tolerance.
Her results immediately before New York were more encouraging. Kenin recovered from a poor start to defeat Eva Lys 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 in Cincinnati. She then pushed No. 10 seed Marta Kostyuk for 2 hours and 23 minutes before losing 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. Kenin served for that match late in the deciding set and came within a few points of defeating one of the season’s strongest performers.
Kenin also took Amanda Anisimova into a deciding-set tiebreak at Wimbledon, losing 2-6, 6-4, 6-7. Although defeats still dominate her record, her recent performances demonstrate that she can compete physically over 3 sets against opponents playing at a far higher level than Williams’ recent opposition.
Williams will receive overwhelming crowd support, while Kenin has occasionally become frustrated when matches turn emotional. A fast start from Williams could make the opening set far closer than the full-match price suggests. Still, crowd energy cannot erase the physical and statistical difference between the players.
My projection gives Williams a 9.8% chance of advancing and Kenin a 90.2% chance. That leaves a 4.2% edge over Kenin’s 86% implied probability. Kenin is playable up to 88¢, but anything higher removes most of the value. Our projected result is Kenin in straight sets, with Williams remaining competitive early before Kenin’s return pressure and superior court coverage create separation.
