2026 Olympic Figure Skating Team Event Preview & Prediction
Updated February 6, 2026
Updated February 6, 2026
The figure skating team event at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo has already begun and the early results have separated the contenders from the pretenders. After Day 1 of competition, the United States holds a slim lead in the standings, but the field remains tightly packed with Japan, Italy, and other top teams all within striking distance. Here, I break down the current odds to win this event and give you my Olympic figure skating team event prediction based on what we've seen so far and what I expect in the near future.
The United States, defending champions from the 2022 Games, began the competition as the team to beat and managed to carry that momentum into the short programs. Madison Chock and Evan Bates set the tone for Team USA with a rhythm dance performance that delivered maximum team points and placed the squad in a strong position early. Their score was one of the season’s best in ice dance, and it underlined how critical this discipline can be in a team format where every point counts.
Equally intriguing has been Japan’s performance, which has been consistently strong across the board. Kaori Sakamoto led in the women’s short program with a commanding score that narrowly edged out the U.S. entry and helped keep Japan firmly in the mix. Italy, buoyed by the enthusiasm of a home crowd and solid showings in key segments, rounds out the top three in the current standings and may benefit from a boost as the competition progresses into the free skate segments.
Another key storyline is the absence of Russia as a competing nation due to their continued ban, which has reshaped the competitive landscape and opened opportunities for other nations to push for medals. Historically a figure skating powerhouse, Russia’s absence has removed a perennial contender and gives teams like Japan and Italy additional chances to capitalize. The presence of individual neutral athletes in some disciplines adds an interesting subplot, though they do not factor into the team event medal chase.
The question from here will be whether the US can hold its nerve in the final stretch of this competition, or if Japan will find a way to catch up. It would be hard to envision the US faltering from here, but stranger things have certainly happened in the Olympics, given all the pressure on these athletes to perform on their sport's biggest stage.
Pick: United States ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
The United States holds the best combination of depth, current form, and they already have the benefit of the early lead in this competition. Japan represents the most realistic threat, but the gap in scores and performance consistency gives the U.S. a meaningful edge here. Italy’s home-ice advantage makes them a compelling dark horse for a podium finish, but chasing the American squad down from behind makes a gold medal unlikely without a significant mistake from the US and Japan somewhere along the line.
I'm going to take the Americans to win the gold medal in this event to start off what should be a strong figure skating program for the US. Without Russia to contend with in this sport, we could see a truly dominant games from the United States in Italy.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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