Denmark carry a lengthy injury list into this World Cup Playoff semi-final, but their overall squad quality still makes them heavy favorites over North Macedonia at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen. A place in the Path D final is on the line, with the winner facing either the Czech Republic or the Republic of Ireland on March 31.
Our Pick
Denmark -1.5 (-115)
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Denmark vs North Macedonia Match Preview
Brian Riemer heads into this tie with serious defensive concerns. Kasper Schmeichel is out with a shoulder problem, while Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Rasmus Kristensen, Patrick Dorgu, and Yussuf Poulsen are all sidelined through injury. Joachim Andersen is suspended.
Despite that, Denmark retain genuine attacking threat through Rasmus Hojlund, who has scored 5 goals in his last 6 international appearances, and the composure of Christian Eriksen in midfield. Denmark have won 11 of their last 16 home matches at Parken and averaged 2.4 goals per game across their last 10 fixtures, scoring 24 in total while conceding 10.
North Macedonia arrive having qualified via the Nations League and are looking to qualify for their first ever World Cup. However, their recent form is poor. They drew 3 of their last 4 matches and have scored just 13 goals across the past 10 outings, averaging 1.4 per game. Their last competitive fixture saw them demolished 7-1 by Wales in Cardiff.
Their best hope runs through Eljif Elmas in midfield and Bojan Miovski up front, with a 5-3-2 block designed to frustrate. The only head-to-head on record ended in a 3-0 win for North Macedonia back in 2013, though that result carries little relevance given how much both sides have changed since.
Betting Insights
- Denmark moneyline: -300
- North Macedonia moneyline: +900
- Draw: +425
- Denmark -1.5: -115
- North Macedonia +1.5: -125
- Over 2.5 goals: -145
- Under 2.5 goals: +115
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of Denmark’s last 10 matches. North Macedonia’s defensive record is not strong either, with 50% of their recent games producing goals at both ends. The under market at +115 offers some value given the playoff context, where tight, low-scoring affairs are common.
However, the makeshift Denmark backline could be vulnerable on the counter, particularly early in the match, which also keeps BTTS Yes in play at around +110. The -1.5 spread is the headline play, but the injury absences introduce enough risk to keep confidence measured.
Denmark vs North Macedonia Pick and Model Projection
- Score Projection: Denmark 2 – North Macedonia 0
- Win Probability: Denmark 68%, North Macedonia 12%, Draw 20%
Denmark’s superior depth, home advantage, and attacking output make them the clear pick here. Hojlund’s form, Eriksen’s experience, and 11 home wins from their last 16 at Parken all point to the same outcome.
North Macedonia’s compact 5-3-2 could keep it tight for a period, but their inability to score consistently away from home is a decisive factor. Denmark should find a way to win by 2 goals, covering the spread without too much drama once they break through the first time.
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