Penguins vs Avalanche Prediction: Pittsburgh Has a Mountain to Climb

The Avalanche enter this matchup at 4-2-1, having scored 31 goals in seven games. That's an impressive return, even for a team featuring Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

MacKinnon already has 12 points, including five goals, while Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen have contributed four goals apiece. Colorado also has considerable depth, with Brock Nelson, Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog capable of providing secondary scoring.

Their recent home-and-home series against Dallas offered another reminder of their quality. Colorado won the opening game 3-2 before losing the rematch by the same score in a shootout. Three points against a strong Stars team isn't exactly a disappointing return.

More importantly, Colorado has controlled approximately 59% of expected goals at five-on-five this season. That's the number I find particularly encouraging. The Avalanche aren't simply converting everything they shoot; they're consistently creating better opportunities than their opponents.

The Penguins have opened the season 3-3-1, and their latest result was a disappointing 5-3 defeat against Chicago.

Sidney Crosby scored twice in that game, but Pittsburgh still couldn't get the job done. It's becoming a familiar story. The Penguins have enough offensive talent to trouble almost anyone, yet their defensive performances remain unpredictable.

One particularly interesting statistic is Pittsburgh's scoring distribution. The Penguins have scored 12 second-period goals through seven games, but they've been considerably less effective in the opening and closing periods.

In fact, they've been outscored 10-4 in third periods over their last six games.

That's hardly encouraging when visiting a team capable of turning a close contest into a comfortable victory in a matter of minutes.

There is some hope for Pittsburgh, though. The Penguins defeated Colorado 7-2 in Denver last March, proving that even the Avalanche can have a spectacularly bad evening.

I'm just not convinced lightning will strike twice.

Neither team has received consistently outstanding goaltending to begin the season.

Arturs Silovs has a .885 save percentage for Pittsburgh, while Mackenzie Blackwood has posted a .879 mark for Colorado. Both are projected starting options, although the assignments remain unconfirmed.

Colorado also has a potential fatigue disadvantage, playing its third game in four days following consecutive meetings with Dallas. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, hasn't played since Tuesday.

Still, I place considerably more weight on Colorado's superior offensive production and underlying numbers than on the rest advantage.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket currently give Colorado approximately a 66% chance of winning.

That seems reasonable. My assessment puts the Avalanche's winning probability around 65%, meaning the markets have largely priced this matchup correctly.

I'd prefer entering a Colorado victory position in the low-60¢ range, ideally around 60-61¢. At the current price, there isn't a sufficiently convincing advantage to justify chasing the favorite.