Italy vs Slovakia Olympic Men's Hockey Prediction - 2/13/2026
Updated February 12, 2026
Updated February 12, 2026
The Olympic Winter Games men’s ice hockey tournament continues on Friday with a Group B preliminary round contest between Italy and Slovakia. The host nation put up a spirited effort in its opener before succumbing to the talent gap against Sweden, while Slovakia arrives off a significant upset victory over one of the pre-tournament favorites in Finland. Before these European squads take to the ice, you can keep reading to get my Italy vs Slovakia prediction.
Pick: Over 5.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Slovakia enters off a commanding 4-1 triumph over Finland in its tournament opener. Juraj Slafkovsky scored twice and combined deceptive finishing with strong support from Dalibor Dvorsky, while goaltender Samuel Hlavaj posted a standout save total to neutralize one of the field’s top offenses. That result not only earned Slovakia valuable points early but confirmed its offense can operate efficiently in the Olympic setting against reputable competition.
Italy fell 5-2 to Sweden in its opener but displayed competitiveness for two periods before losing control in the third. Goaltender Damian Clara delivered an outstanding performance with 46 saves before an injury ended his night. Italy’s offense managed to puncture a deep Swedish defense and kept the game tight deep into the contest, indicating the home side is capable of competing even if it lacks NHL-level stars.
Goaltending is a pivotal aspect for both teams. Slovakia’s Samuel Hlavaj stood tall against Finland, making 39 saves and often steering his team out of trouble when under pressure. While his regular-season save percentage was modest in the AHL, his Olympic performance shows he can rise to the occasion.
Italy’s netminding situation is less certain due to Clara’s injury status from the Sweden game. If Clara is unavailable on Friday, Davide Fadani is expected to get the start. Fadani’s relief appearance was solid but not effective to the degree Clara's was.
Score Projection: Italy 2 – Slovakia 6 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Italy 12%, Slovakia 88% ATS PRO
Italy impressed in its opener and will benefit from passionate home support. But the Slovak roster carries more high-end firepower and likely will use its superior depth to get the win over 60 minutes. Bettors seeking value should consider Slovakia on the puck line, along with the over. I'll go with the over as my top pick, as another 5-2 game or something similar should cone for Italy as their defense will continue to struggle here.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
