Avalanche vs Stars: Is Dallas the Better Trade?
Updated October 13, 2026
Updated October 13, 2026
The Colorado Avalanche visit the Dallas Stars on Tuesday, October 13, for one of the more interesting matchups during NHL Frozen Frenzy. These two Central Division heavyweights have developed quite a rivalry in recent seasons, and they'll actually face each other twice in as many nights.
Colorado enters at 3-2-0 following Saturday's 6-3 loss against Toronto, while Dallas sits at 2-2-1 after losing 2-1 in a shootout against Pittsburgh. Neither team is coming off a particularly impressive performance, but there's a significant difference in how they've been playing. The Avalanche are scoring goals for fun, while the Stars have been relying heavily on their goaltending.
Prediction markets have Colorado as a slight favorite, with the Avalanche trading around 52¢ across Kalshi and Polymarket. I can understand that assessment, but I'm not entirely convinced the visitors deserve to be favored in Dallas, especially considering how well Jake Oettinger has been playing.
There's very little separating these teams in the prediction markets. Colorado is the marginal favorite, but we're essentially looking at a coin flip.
I have Dallas around 51–52% to win this matchup, assuming Oettinger starts. That puts my projection slightly above the market's current assessment of the Stars, although we're hardly looking at some massive pricing mistake.
The main argument for Dallas is its goaltending, combined with home ice and Colorado's recent defensive problems. On the other hand, the Avalanche have one of the most dangerous offenses in hockey, and Nathan MacKinnon has been producing points at an impressive rate.
At approximately 49¢, Dallas is interesting, but I'd prefer an entry closer to 46–47¢ to give us a little more room after accounting for fees. The starting goaltenders could also make a difference, so I wouldn't rush into this one.
The Avalanche have scored 26 goals through five games, which is a ridiculous offensive pace even by Colorado's standards. MacKinnon is leading the way with five goals and ten points, while Cale Makar already has seven points from the blue line.
We've also seen contributions from Martin Necas, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri, giving Colorado several dangerous options beyond its established superstars.
Thursday's 7-3 victory against Calgary was another impressive display of offensive firepower, although we shouldn't read too much into a big win against a Flames team that has struggled badly during the opening weeks of the season.
Saturday's 6-3 defeat against Toronto was considerably more concerning.
The Avalanche actually outshot the Maple Leafs 33-23 and held the lead on three separate occasions, but their defensive mistakes proved costly. William Nylander finished with five points, Auston Matthews added four, and Colorado struggled to contain Toronto's top players once the game started opening up.
MacKinnon scored twice, but even that wasn't enough.
I don't think we should panic over one defeat, especially when Colorado is still generating plenty of offense. However, conceding six goals on just 23 shots raises questions about the defensive structure and goaltending, particularly heading into a matchup against another legitimate Western Conference contender.
The Avalanche clearly have the offensive talent to overwhelm Dallas, but they'll need to be considerably more disciplined without the puck.
While Colorado has been scoring almost at will, Dallas has managed just 11 goals through five games. That's not particularly encouraging for a team featuring Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston.
The Stars opened the season with consecutive defeats before bouncing back with impressive shutout victories over San Jose and Buffalo. However, Saturday's 2-1 shootout loss against Pittsburgh was a reminder that the offense still hasn't found any real consistency.
Dallas needed a Tyler Seguin goal with approximately 30 seconds remaining to force overtime against the Penguins. The Stars also failed to capitalize on three power-play opportunities, continuing what has been a rather disappointing start with the man advantage.
The power play has converted just once in 13 opportunities this season, compared with Colorado's four goals on 18 attempts.
There's also the Matt Duchene situation to consider. The veteran forward underwent surgery to repair a core injury and is expected to miss approximately three months. He hasn't played this season, so his absence isn't a new development, but it's another reminder that Dallas is missing an important piece of its offensive depth.
Still, I wouldn't underestimate the Stars.
Rantanen remains one of the NHL's most dangerous offensive players, while Robertson and Johnston have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to produce against Colorado. Robertson has eight points in his last six meetings with the Avalanche, while Johnston has collected 12 points in his previous nine.
Dallas has the talent to score more consistently than we've seen so far. The question is whether the Stars can start converting their opportunities against a Colorado defense that looked vulnerable against Toronto.
If there's one major reason to support Dallas here, it's Oettinger.
The Stars goaltender has been outstanding during the opening weeks of the season, and his performances earned him the NHL's Second Star of the Week award on Monday.
Oettinger allowed just one goal in three starts last week, stopping 59 of 60 shots for a .983 save percentage and a 0.33 goals-against average. He recorded consecutive shutouts against San Jose and Buffalo before his shutout streak finally ended against Pittsburgh.
Those numbers are obviously unsustainable over an entire season, but he's giving Dallas exactly what it needs while the offense struggles.
Colorado's goaltending situation is considerably less convincing.
Mackenzie Blackwood started Saturday's defeat against Toronto and had another difficult evening, allowing five goals before the Maple Leafs added an empty-netter. It wasn't entirely his fault, as Colorado made several defensive mistakes, but the Avalanche would certainly have liked a few more saves.
Scott Wedgewood is another option for head coach Jared Bednar, particularly with Colorado facing Dallas again on Wednesday. Both goaltenders could see action during this home-and-home series.
Oettinger and Blackwood are the projected starters for Tuesday, although neither assignment has been confirmed.
I think Dallas has the goaltending advantage if Oettinger starts. However, I'd be considerably less enthusiastic about the Stars if Casey DeSmith gets the assignment instead.
There's another wrinkle to this matchup that I find particularly interesting.
Colorado and Dallas meet in Texas on Tuesday before playing again in Denver on Wednesday. It's an unusual scheduling arrangement for two teams that could easily find themselves competing for the Central Division title later in the season.
The Avalanche won the division last year, finishing with 121 points, while Dallas finished second with 112. The Stars also won their regular-season series against Colorado, going 2-1-1, with three of the four games requiring overtime or a shootout.
These teams know each other extremely well, and there's plenty of history between them.
Rantanen facing his former team adds another storyline, although we're well past the stage where every meeting between the Finnish winger and Colorado needs to become a major event.
For me, the more interesting question is how both coaches approach the back-to-back situation.
We could see different starting goaltenders on Wednesday, and neither team will want to expend unnecessary energy in the opening matchup. That doesn't necessarily mean we'll get a cautious game, but I expect both sides to place considerable emphasis on defensive structure.
Given Colorado's recent problems keeping the puck out of its own net, that could favor Dallas.
I think this is one of the more difficult games to separate on Tuesday's Frozen Frenzy schedule.
Colorado has been considerably more impressive offensively, and it's difficult to argue against a team averaging more than five goals per game. MacKinnon is producing at an elite level, Makar remains one of the league's premier defensemen, and the Avalanche have enough depth to trouble pretty much anyone.
However, Dallas has the home-ice advantage and, potentially, the stronger starting goaltender.
I also think the Stars are better than their 2-2-1 record suggests. Their offensive struggles are concerning, particularly on the power play, but the roster still contains several proven scorers who should eventually start producing more consistently.
I'm not expecting Oettinger to maintain his ridiculous early-season numbers, but I trust him more than Colorado's current goaltending options.
That's enough for me to give Dallas a narrow advantage.
Prediction | My assessment |
|---|---|
Projected winner | Dallas Stars |
Projected score | Dallas 3, Colorado 2 |
Estimated Dallas win probability | 51–52% |
Preferred entry | Dallas around 46–47¢ |
Current recommendation | Slight Dallas lean; limited value around 49¢ |
My pick is Dallas, but this looks like a game where the starting goaltenders could make all the difference. Colorado's offensive firepower is difficult to ignore, but I think the Stars have a decent opportunity to slow things down and make life difficult for the visitors.
And considering these two teams meet again tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's contest is decided by a single goal.
