Sabres vs Canadiens: Montreal Favored in Revenge Matchup
Updated October 13, 2026
Updated October 13, 2026
The Buffalo Sabres visit the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, October 13, in what should be an interesting rematch of last season's Eastern Conference playoff series. Montreal eliminated Buffalo in Game 7 back in May, and I imagine the Sabres haven't completely forgotten about that one.
Buffalo enters at 3-3-0 following Monday's 5-3 victory over Florida, while Montreal is 2-2-1 after defeating Detroit 1-0 in a shootout on Saturday. Neither team has been particularly convincing during the opening weeks of the season, but the Canadiens have a couple of important advantages heading into this matchup.
Prediction markets favor Montreal, with the Canadiens carrying a market probability of approximately 58–60% across Kalshi and Polymarket US. I agree with the general assessment, especially with Buffalo playing on consecutive nights and captain Rasmus Dahlin unavailable. However, I'm not entirely convinced there's enough value at the current prices.
Montreal is the clear favorite on both major prediction market platforms, although there's a small difference between their displayed prices.
I have Montreal at approximately 58–59% to win this matchup, which puts my projection fairly close to the market consensus.
The biggest factors are relatively straightforward. Montreal is playing at home, has had two days without a game, and faces a Buffalo team that just went through a demanding matchup against Florida. The Sabres are also missing Dahlin, arguably their most important player.
Still, I wouldn't completely dismiss Buffalo. The Sabres showed some encouraging offensive signs on Monday, and Montreal hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders either.
For me, the Canadiens become considerably more interesting if their contracts drop toward 54–55¢. At around 58–60¢, I think we're paying close to fair value, leaving little room for an attractive trade once fees are considered.
The Sabres probably don't need much motivation for this game. Montreal ended their playoff run in May, winning a seven-game series that concluded with Alex Newhook scoring the overtime winner in Game 7.
Buffalo now gets its first opportunity to respond, although the scheduling situation isn't particularly favorable.
The Sabres defeated Florida 5-3 on Monday, snapping a two-game losing streak that included a 4-0 defeat against Dallas and a 4-1 loss to Utah. Tage Thompson finished with a goal and an assist, while Noah Östlund scored the deciding goal on the power play in the third period.
It was an important bounceback performance, especially considering Buffalo had struggled to generate much offense in its previous two games. However, the Sabres also surrendered three separate leads before finally pulling away from the Panthers.
That's not exactly the type of defensive performance that inspires confidence heading into another game less than 24 hours later.
The biggest concern, however, is Dahlin. Buffalo's captain suffered an upper-body injury against Florida and did not travel with the team to Montreal. His absence leaves a significant hole on the blue line, particularly when it comes to puck movement and the power play.
Owen Power will likely have to shoulder additional responsibility, while the rest of Buffalo's defense needs to compensate for the loss of its most influential player.
I still think the Sabres have enough offensive talent to make this competitive, but missing Dahlin while playing on short rest is a difficult combination to overcome.
Montreal ended a three-game losing streak against Detroit on Saturday, although it took a shootout to finally separate the teams.
The Canadiens won 1-0, with Jacob Fowler stopping all 30 shots he faced before Zachary Bolduc scored the deciding goal in the sixth round of the shootout. It was an impressive performance from Fowler, particularly considering he's filling in while Sam Montembeault is sidelined.
However, we shouldn't confuse a shutout victory with a dominant offensive performance.
Montreal once again struggled to turn its opportunities into goals, and its power play went 0-for-4 against Detroit. The Canadiens have now converted just one of their first 17 power-play opportunities, which is hardly ideal for a team featuring Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson.
There are mitigating circumstances. Ivan Demidov remains sidelined with a lower-body injury, while Oliver Kapanen has also been dealing with injury concerns. Both absences limit Montreal's offensive options, particularly away from its established top players.
On the positive side, Kaiden Guhle returned against Detroit after missing the start of the season, providing some much-needed defensive depth. Having Guhle available alongside Hutson, Noah Dobson and Mike Matheson gives Montreal a considerably stronger-looking blue line.
I don't think the Canadiens have been particularly impressive so far, but they're getting Buffalo at a favorable time. Playing at home with two days of recovery against an opponent missing its best defenseman is an opportunity Montreal should be able to take advantage of.
Montreal's goaltending situation is interesting following Fowler's shutout against Detroit. The young netminder was outstanding, but Jakub Dobes remains another option, and the Canadiens haven't confirmed their starter for Tuesday.
Fowler certainly deserves consideration after his latest performance. That being said, I wouldn't automatically assume he'll start again, particularly with Montreal also scheduled to face Washington on Wednesday.
Buffalo has its own questions between the pipes.
Colten Ellis started Monday's game against Florida but was replaced by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen during the second period after allowing two goals on nine shots. Luukkonen stopped all 13 shots he faced in relief and helped Buffalo secure the victory.
With Alex Lyon also sidelined, Buffalo's options are somewhat limited. Luukkonen might be the more appealing choice after Monday's performance, but his early-season numbers have been far from convincing.
Neither team's starting goaltender has been confirmed at the time of writing, so this is something worth checking before entering the market.
I think Montreal deserves to be favored here, although I'm not expecting a particularly comfortable victory.
Buffalo has enough offensive firepower to cause problems, and Monday's performance against Florida suggests the Sabres might be finding some confidence. Tage Thompson remains a major threat, while Power and the supporting forwards will have opportunities to step up in Dahlin's absence.
However, the circumstances surrounding this matchup are difficult to ignore.
Montreal has home ice, more rest, and a significant advantage on the blue line with Dahlin unavailable for Buffalo. The Canadiens also have the psychological benefit of having eliminated the Sabres from last season's playoffs, although I wouldn't put too much weight on that particular factor.
My biggest concern with Montreal is its offensive inconsistency. The Canadiens have struggled on the power play, and injuries to Demidov and other forwards have reduced their attacking depth.
Even so, I believe Montreal has enough to get the job done.
Prediction | My assessment |
|---|---|
Projected winner | Montreal Canadiens |
Projected score | Montreal 3, Buffalo 2 |
Estimated Montreal win probability | 58–59% |
Preferred entry | Montreal around 54–55¢ or lower |
At approximately 58–60¢, Montreal is already trading close to my estimated fair probability, and I'm not seeing enough separation to justify an immediate position.
I'd be interested if the Canadiens dropped into the mid-50¢ range, particularly if their starting goaltender is confirmed without any additional lineup concerns.
My pick is Montreal, but the market seems to have this one pretty much right. The Canadiens are in a favorable position against a tired and injury-hit Buffalo team, although their own offensive problems make me reluctant to chase the price.
And while Buffalo would undoubtedly enjoy getting some revenge for last spring's playoff elimination, I think the Sabres might have to wait a little longer.
