Ravens vs Falcons Player Prop Predictions: Best SNF Props for Week 5
Updated October 9, 2026
*Note: Polymarket prices are subject to change.
Updated October 9, 2026
*Note: Polymarket prices are subject to change.
The Baltimore Ravens head to Atlanta to face the Falcons on Sunday Night Football in Week 5, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Baltimore will likely be without two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, while the Falcons are preparing for their third straight primetime game after back-to-back blowout wins brought them back to 2-2 on the year.
Rather than taking a side or total in this one, though, I think the better value may be in the player prop markets. Below, I'll break down my three favorite Ravens vs Falcons player prop predictions, targeting Derrick Henry, Drake London and Bijan Robinson.
Henry's Workload Without Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry has recorded 24, 21, and 36 carries in his last three games without Jackson, clearing 20+ attempts in all three. That's an average of 27 carries per game, and with Jackson dealing with an ankle injury, Baltimore could lean heavily on Henry again Sunday night.
Already Seeing Heavy Volume This Season
Henry has handled 89 carries through four games (22.3 per game), reaching 20+ attempts in every contest. He also had 23 carries against Tennessee last week despite averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, showing that Baltimore isn't afraid to keep feeding him even when the running game struggles.
Volume Over Efficiency
Atlanta leads the NFL in rushing defense, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, and ranks second in run-defense success rate (71.8%). That makes Henry's rushing-yard props less appealing, but his attempts prop allows us to back his workload without needing him to put up big yardage against one of the league's top run defenses.
Recommended Prediction:
Henry 20+ Rush Att
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model Over Probability:
59.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
55.0%
Model Edge:
+4.5%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
71/100
Dominant Target Share With Penix Jr.
Drake London has commanded 43.5% and 30% of Atlanta's targets in the two games since Michael Penix Jr. returned. He's been Penix's top option in the passing game, giving him plenty of opportunities to produce again Sunday night.
Baltimore's Struggles Against No. 1 Receivers
The Ravens rank 26th in yards allowed per target (11.2) against opposing No. 1 receivers. They've also allowed 80+ yards to Chris Olave (86), CeeDee Lamb (112), and Carnell Tate (145) over the last three weeks, setting up a favorable matchup for London.
Back-to-Back Strong Performances
London has cleared 80 receiving yards in consecutive games, finishing with 194 yards against Green Bay and 96 against New Orleans. He's also averaging 18.5 yards per reception this season, giving him a path to 80+ yards without needing double-digit catches.
Recommended Prediction:
London 80+ Rec Yds
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Over Probability:
58.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
53.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Bijan's Goal-Line Usage
Bijan Robinson has handled 17 red-zone carries this season, including eight inside the 10-yard line and five inside the 5. He's also accounted for 83.3% of Atlanta's carries inside the 5, making him the Falcons' clear top option near the goal line.
Baltimore's Struggles Against the Run
The Ravens have allowed six rushing touchdowns through four games, tied for the most in the NFL. They've also surrendered 400 rushing yards at 3.9 yards per carry, making this a favorable matchup for a running back who already has five total touchdowns this season.
Atlanta's Surging Rushing Offense
Since Michael Penix Jr. returned, the Falcons have averaged 40 points per game, while leading the NFL in rushing EPA per play (+0.28) and rushing success rate (58.2%). Bijan has scored four touchdowns over those two games, and Atlanta enters Sunday as a home favorite, setting up another potentially favorable game script.
Recommended Prediction:
Bijan Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
65¢
Model TD Probability:
70.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
65.0%
Model Edge:
+5.5%
Buy Up To:
69¢
Model Trade Confidence:
76/100
Polymarket currently has the Atlanta Falcons priced at around 62¢ to win, implying a 62% chance they'll pick up their third straight primetime victory.
Atlanta is also favored by 3.5 points at home, with a 48¢ price to cover the number. These prices appear to reflect the expectation that Lamar Jackson won't play, although the Ravens haven't officially ruled him out just yet.
Meanwhile, the total is set at 44.5 points, with the Over trading at 48¢ on Polymarket.
So, how do these prices line up with the expected game script and our three player prop predictions?
Our Ravens vs Falcons prediction and matchup analysis projects a closer game than the moneyline suggests, with Atlanta winning 24-21 and Baltimore covering the 3.5-point spread. That would put the game just over the total and give all three of our player props a reasonable path to hitting.
For more game previews, player props and team analysis, check out our latest NFL predictions and picks.
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