Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
Jaylen Warren projections and prop bets for Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens on Jan 11, 2025
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to notch 4.0 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jaylen Warren is positioned as one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 21.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (57.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are anticipated by the projections to run only 64.6 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) to RBs this year (79.5%).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 20.8 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to notch 4.0 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 11.9% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (57.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are anticipated by the projections to run only 64.6 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
Jaylen Warren's receiving talent has diminished this year, accumulating just 2.6 adjusted catches vs 3.6 last year.
The Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) to RBs this year (79.5%).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 2.8 Receptions in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.6% run rate.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
While Jaylen Warren has garnered 25.6% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Pittsburgh's ground game in this game at 37.7%.
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are anticipated by the projections to run only 64.6 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Baltimore defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 10.1 Carries in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.6% run rate.
The Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
While Jaylen Warren has garnered 25.6% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Pittsburgh's ground game in this game at 37.7%.
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are anticipated by the projections to run only 64.6 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 79.0 per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 43.9 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
