Jaylen Warren projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec 25, 2024
Jaylen Warren Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 2.5 over: -165
- Receptions 2.5 under: 125
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
In this game, Jaylen Warren is anticipated by the model to rank in the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.2 targets.
Jaylen Warren's 15.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 84th percentile for running backs.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 55.0% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Jaylen Warren's receiving talent has declined this year, compiling a mere 2.4 adjusted catches vs 3.6 last year.
This year, the strong Chiefs defense has yielded a feeble 79.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.
Projection For Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop Bet
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 2.9 Receptions in this weeks game.
Jaylen Warren Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 35.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 35.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The model projects the Steelers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
Jaylen Warren's 30.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season signifies a meaningful diminishment in his running skills over last season's 42.0 figure.
Jaylen Warren's 3.9 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a substantial reduction in his rushing skills over last season's 4.8 mark.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 91.0 per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection For Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 36.9 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Jaylen Warren Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 8.5 over: -140
- Carries 8.5 under: 105
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
The model projects the Steelers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection For Jaylen Warren Carries Prop Bet
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 8.6 Carries in this weeks game.
Jaylen Warren Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 19.5 over: -120
- Receiving Yards 19.5 under: 100
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
In this game, Jaylen Warren is anticipated by the model to rank in the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.2 targets.
With a remarkable 18.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (76th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the leading pass-catching running backs in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 55.0% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered a puny 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the fewest in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. running backs this year, yielding 4.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.
Projection For Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Jaylen Warren is projected to have 20.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
