Eagles vs Jaguars Player Props: Anytime TD Scorer Prediction For NFL London Game
Updated October 10, 2026
Eagles vs Jaguars Full Game Pricing
Updated October 10, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts enters Sunday's October 11, 2026, matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars with an opportunity to claim a larger share of his team's offensive usage. Philadelphia arrives in London at 2-2 following a 24-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, while Jacksonville is 3-1 after defeating Cincinnati 22-17. With Saquon Barkley unavailable and the Eagles missing several offensive starters, Hurts could become a more important option than he already is.
Projection vs. Price
Using the Polymarket price of 31 cents, Hurts needs to score a rushing or receiving touchdown in 31% of possible outcomes for the position to break even. Our situational probability estimate places that likelihood at 36%, creating a 5% edge. That projection combines his established goal-line role, recent rushing workload, Philadelphia's injury situation, and Jacksonville's defensive performance. At 34 cents, the position would retain a smaller 2% advantage.
One Yard Away?
The Polymarket pricing also suggests a relatively low-scoring environment. The game total sits at 42.5 points, with the over priced at 48 cents and the under at 53 cents. That limits the number of touchdown opportunities Philadelphia may generate. However, Hurts does not need an especially productive offensive performance to score. A single possession reaching the 1-yard line could create the opportunity that makes this prediction successful.
Recommended Position:
Hurts Anytime TD
Current Price:
31¢
Model Probability:
36%
Market Probability:
31%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
34¢
Model Confidence:
80/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Barkley's absence increases the potential for Hurts to handle valuable short-yardage opportunities, while his proven rushing touchdown production suggests greater scoring potential than his early 2026 numbers indicate.”
Hurts has rushed 21 times for 105 yards and 1 touchdown through Philadelphia's first 4 games, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. His 8 rushing first downs account for 38.1% of his attempts, illustrating his effectiveness at keeping drives alive.
His longer-term scoring history is even more relevant. Hurts recorded 8 rushing touchdowns in 2025, following seasons with 14 in 2024 and 15 in 2023. Although his current touchdown pace is lower, those previous results demonstrate how frequently Philadelphia has trusted him near the goal line.
Jacksonville has been excellent defensively, particularly early in games. The Jaguars have allowed 3 points or fewer in the first half of each of their opening 4 contests.
However, Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow scored a rushing touchdown against Jacksonville last Sunday. That provides a recent example of a quarterback finding the end zone against this defense, even though the Jaguars held running back Chase Brown to just 10 yards on 9 carries.
Jacksonville can contain traditional rushing attempts while remaining vulnerable to quarterback movement or carefully timed runs near the goal line in this Eagles vs Jaguars matchup.
Barkley's hamstring injury removes Philadelphia's established lead running back, while Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. Will Shipley is expected to handle the largest share of backfield work, with Dameon Pierce and Carson Steele providing depth.
The Eagles will also be without DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown, potentially reducing their passing options. Dallas Goedert's return gives Hurts another trusted scoring target, but designed quarterback runs could remain an attractive option when Philadelphia gets inside the 5-yard line.
Jacksonville's defense deserves respect, and Philadelphia's offensive injuries make scoring opportunities less certain. Still, Hurts offers a compelling combination of rushing ability, short-yardage experience, and an increased opportunity to influence the offense without Barkley.
At the supplied 31-cent price, his 36% projected scoring probability gives us a modest but meaningful advantage. Our expected outcome is a Hurts rushing touchdown on a designed keeper or short-yardage quarterback sneak, making him the recommended anytime touchdown scorer prediction for Sunday's London matchup.
