Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Prediction & Best Bet – 1/4/2026

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article has been updated to reflect the Chargers’ announcement that Justin Herbert would not be playing in Week 18.

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will meet in Week 18 of the NFL regular season. Denver has clinched the AFC West title already and can lock up the top seed in the AFC with a win at home here. But the Chargers are playing for postseason positioning of their own in this contest and will try to get an important win at Denver’s expense. Before kickoff from the Mile High City, you can find my breakdown of this game below, including my Chargers vs Broncos prediction.

Our Chargers vs Broncos Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
• Date & Time: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
• Broadcast: CBS

Key Storylines

Postseason positioning is the top storyline for both teams going into this Week 18 contest. The Broncos will either host a first-round playoff game as AFC West champions, or they will earn the top seed in the AFC with a win and have a first-round bye. The Chargers could finish anywhere from fifth place to seventh place in the AFC depending on what happens in their game, along with the games featuring the Texans and Bills.

The Chargers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Houston Texans on Saturday that hurt their seeding prospects. Los Angeles was held to 16 points against the elite defense of the Texans and they will need to rebound to win this game. But they don’t appear all that intent on winning this game after deciding to rest Justin Herbert and give the start to Trey Lance. Meanwhile, the Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas night, though that game was closer than expected despite the Chiefs having to start their third-string quarterback.

Quarterback Play

Bo Nix leads the offense of the Broncos into this contest at home. Nix’s numbers are nearly identical to those of LA’s Justin Herbert, despite Herbert having the reputation for being a better quarterback. Here, Nix has a chance to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of NFL signal-callers by helping his team to lock up the top seed in the AFC.

Trey Lance has thrown a total of 13 passes this season as a member of the Chargers. He has had previous stops in San Francisco and Dallas in his career, none of which have been all that successful. If he could lead the Chargers to a shocking victory in this contest, it would certainly be one of the most memorable things he’s done as a pro.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Chargers defeated the Broncos 23-20 at home in the first meeting between these teams this season.
• The Chargers are 8-7-1 against the spread so far this season.
• Denver enters Week 18 at 6-9-1 against the spread on the year.
• The Chargers have gone 6-9-1 in the over/under market, favoring the under this year.
• The under has hit in 9 of Denver’s first 16 games.

Chargers vs Broncos Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.