The Houston Texans and New England Patriots will meet in the Divisional round of the AFC playoffs on Sunday. Houston got a win on the road in the Wild Card round over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. Now they hit the road again on a short prep week to try and upset the second seed in the AFC. Can the Texans’ defense carry them to an upset? Keep reading to find out what I think, as I make my Texans vs Patriots prediction in the postseason.
Our Texans vs Patriots Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Sunday, January 18, 2026, Time TBD
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: Network TBD
Texans vs Patriots Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -2.5 | Patriots -146 / Texans +124 | 41.5 |
Key Storylines
The Houston Texans’ defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season long and they continued to be just that against the Pittsburgh Steelers to close out Wild Card weekend. Houston made life miserable for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, with the defense of the Texans scoring more touchdowns than the offense of the Steelers before garbage time. But the offense of the Texans wasn’t great and will need to be better to upset the AFC’s number-two seed.
New England also got a win during Wild Card Weekend, shutting down the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 game at Foxborough. The Patriots held the Chargers to just 207 yards of offense in that game and it is entirely possible that the Patriots do the same to the Texans given the struggles of Houston’s offense in the first round.
Quarterback Play
Neither quarterback in this matchup was all that good in the Wild Card round. The Texans got 250 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception from CJ Stroud. But most of those yards came on three big passes to Christian Kirk and Stroud struggled outside of those plays. Houston can’t afford to see a similar performance from him in this game if they want to win.
New England got 268 passing yards and 66 rushing yards from Drake Maye, whose first playoff win came with some hiccups but also some good moments. It will be interesting to see if he plays a little more freely now that he has passed his first test in the playoffs with a win over the Chargers.
Betting Trends
- New England is 12-5-1 against the spread going into this contest.
- Houston is 10-8 against the spread entering the Divisional round.
- The over is 11-7 in games involving the Patriots this season.
- Houston has stayed under the total in 11 of their 18 games.
Texans vs Patriots Model Projection
Final Thoughts
