Updated September 18, 2026
*Note: Prices shown are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
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The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. The total is set at 46.5 points, making this one of the higher totals on Sunday’s slate.
With Over 46.5 trading around 49¢ at Polymarket, there should be some opportunities in the anytime touchdown scorer markets. Let’s break down the players we like to find the end zone and where we see the most value.
Taylor Owns the Goal-Line Work
Taylor had all three of the Colts’ carries inside the 5-yard line against Baltimore and scored twice. He also handled all five of their red-zone carries, so he should get his chances if Indianapolis gets close to the goal line.
He’s Been a Touchdown Machine With Daniel Jones
In 13 games with Jones last season, Taylor scored 18 total touchdowns, including 16 rushing and two receiving. That works out to nearly 1.4 touchdowns per game.
Taylor Is a Receiving TD Threat, Too
Taylor caught three passes for 23 yards in Week 1, and two of his 18 touchdowns with Jones last season came through the air. That receiving role also gives him another way to score if the Colts fall behind and have to throw more against Kansas City.
Recommended Prediction:
J. Taylor Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
59¢
Model TD Probability:
63.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
59%
Model Edge:
4.4%
Buy Up To:
61¢
Model Trade Confidence:
76/100
The Matchup Is Much Easier Than Denver
Rice saw only two targets in Week 1 against a Denver defense that ranked top 10 against the pass last season. Indianapolis, meanwhile, allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL in 2025 and gave up the most yards per target to wide receivers in Week 1.
Rice Torched the Colts Last Season
Rice didn’t score when these teams met last season, but he finished with 141 receiving yards. That was one of his biggest games of the year and showed how much trouble Indianapolis had keeping him in check.
Kansas City Should Throw More This Week
The Chiefs leaned heavily on the run against Denver while easing Mahomes back into action, and Rice still scored despite seeing only two targets. More passing volume against Indianapolis should give him more chances to score.
Recommended Prediction:
R. Rice Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
39¢
Model TD Probability:
42.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
39%
Model Edge:
3.1%
Buy Up To:
41¢
Model Trade Confidence:
69/100
Pierce Is Always a Threat to Score From Deep
Pierce finished last season with 1,003 receiving yards and six touchdowns while averaging 21.3 yards per catch. He also saw 103 air yards on six targets in Week 1, so he doesn’t need the Colts to get near the goal line to find the end zone.
His Role Should Grow This Week
The Colts eased Pierce back into action in Week 1 following offseason surgery, as he played only about 59% of the snaps. Pierce said Thursday that he expects to play more against Kansas City, which should mean more routes and more chances downfield.
Falling Behind Could Actually Help Pierce
If Kansas City gets out in front, the Colts will probably have to throw more. We saw that against Baltimore, when Pierce had catches of 14 and 23 yards on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive, with the second one taking Indianapolis down to the 9-yard line.
Recommended Prediction:
A. Pierce Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
21¢
Model TD Probability:
26.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
21%
Model Edge:
5.6%
Buy Up To:
24¢
Model Trade Confidence:
67/100
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