Ravens vs Cowboys Prop Predictions: NFL Week 3 Player Props
Updated September 24, 2026
Ravens vs Cowboys Full Game Pricing
Updated September 24, 2026
Baltimore and Dallas arrive in Rio de Janeiro at 1-1, but their first two weeks point to very different paths to victory on Sunday. The Ravens opened with a 41-23 win at Indianapolis before losing 24-17 to New Orleans, while the Cowboys followed a 28-20 loss to the Giants with a 37-20 win over Washington. The Ravens prefer to gain an advantage with their running game, while the Cowboys are most dangerous through the air, setting up what should be an exciting offensive matchup.
Henry's Over Our Model Pick
As of Thursday morning, Polymarket US has Henry over 79.5 rushing yards priced at roughly 61¢, leaving the other side near 39¢. That puts the market’s implied probability below my 66% estimate. The full game market also leans Baltimore, with the Ravens around 62¢ to win and Dallas near 38¢. That setup implies that Henry should have success on the ground against a Cowboys team that has struggled to contain the run.
A Matchup Advantage For King Henry
The 79.5 line also offers a useful balance of price and ceiling compared with a much higher rushing threshold. Henry has cleared 79.5 in 24 of his last 38 games and 7 of his last 10. Our projection places him around 89 rushing yards. The matchup should help his numbers, because Dallas has struggled on defense specifically where Baltimore is strongest on offense.
Recommended Prediction:
Derrick Henry over 79.5 rushing yards
Current Market Price:
61¢
Model Win Probability:
66%
Market-Implied Probability:
61%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
64¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Baltimore owns the league’s best run-block win rate at 79%, while Dallas has allowed 347 rushing yards in two games. Henry has already carried 40 times for 212 yards at 5.3 yards per attempt, and his Week 2 usage left obvious room for an increase.”
Dallas has conceded 347 rushing yards through two games. Washington ran for 182 in Week 2, and quarterback Jayden Daniels accounted for 69 before leaving the game. The Cowboys have also allowed 126 rushing yards to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL. That is significant for Henry because Lamar Jackson’s threat on option concepts can hold an edge defender and create cleaner lanes inside for running backs as well. That's a big reason for our Ravens vs Cowboys prediction backing Baltimore.
Baltimore’s pass protection has been shaky, but its run blocking has been a different story. The Ravens rank first in run-block win rate at 79%. That gives the offense a logical reason to lean into Henry, particularly with left tackle Ronnie Stanley managing a toe injury and Zay Flowers still dealing with a hamstring issue. If Baltimore wants to reduce obvious passing situations, an early commitment to Henry is the simplest route.
Henry rushed 24 times for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns against Indianapolis, then finished with 16 carries for 68 yards and a score against New Orleans. The more important Week 2 detail is that he received only 5 carries in the second half of a one-score loss. Baltimore’s own postgame coverage highlighted the limited second-half workload, making another 16-carry day less likely strategically.
At Henry’s 5.3 yards per carry through two games, 16 carries would produce roughly 85 yards if that efficiency held. He does not need an extreme workload to cross 79.5. A return to the 18-to-22 carry range would give this position considerably more margin.
The biggest risk is game flow. Dallas showed in Week 2 that Dak Prescott can create plenty of offense, throwing 4 touchdowns against Washington. If Baltimore falls behind by multiple scores, Henry’s rushing volume could shrink. There is also some uncertainty around the Ravens’ offensive line because Stanley did not practice Wednesday.
Even with those concerns, Dallas has yet to show it can consistently stop the run, and several defenders entered the week injured. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, safety Malik Hooker, safety P.J. Locke and cornerback Cobie Durant all missed Wednesday’s practice. Given Baltimore’s blocking numbers, Dallas’ early run-defense results and the likelihood of a larger Henry workload, over 79.5 rushing yards at 61¢ is the strongest player-prop prediction on the current board.
