New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Prediction – 11/17/2025

The New York Knicks and Miami Heat will meet in an important Eastern Conference matchup on Monday night. These teams last played against each other in an NBA Cup contest on Friday. The Knicks won that game handily to even the season series at a game apiece. Who will win their matchup on Monday? Continue reading to find my Knicks vs Heat prediction.

Our Knicks vs Heat Pick

Pick: Heat -1.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
• Date & Time: Monday, November 17, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

• Injury concerns behind both backcourts: New York is again without Jalen Brunson, who is listed as out with a right ankle injury. They also lost OG Anunoby with a hamstring injury. Miami is still missing Tyler Herro (ankle) and Bam Adebayo is out as well. These absences could significantly affect both teams’ spacing, playmaking, and rebounding execution.
• Depth vs. firepower: The Knicks leaned on their reserves heavily in their recent 140–132 win in Miami, with Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 39 points, Landry Shamet dropping a career-high 36 off the bench, and Josh Hart recording a triple-double. That kind of production from role players like Shamet, if he can sustain it. Norman Powell continues to carry the Heat’s offense, having scored 38 in the last outing.
• Road struggles for New York: The Knicks are 0–3 on the road so far this season, including a loss in Miami to the Heat. Miami is 5-1 at home on the year and will try to take advantage of being at Kaseya Center again.
• Rebound battle: Miami’s rebounding was a noted weakness in the last game. With Adebayo out, their frontcourt depth will be tested against Towns and the Knicks’ long rebounders.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Past meetings

This will be the third meeting of the season between the two. New York took the second contest in a shootout, 140–132. They split the early-season series, demonstrating that both clubs have what it takes to win against one another.

ATS and O/U records

• The Knicks are 8–4 against the spread (ATS) this season.
• The Heat are 8-5 against the spread this year.
• The Knicks have gone over the total in 9 of their 12 games.
• The Heat have gone over the total 9 times in 13 games.

Best Player Props to Watch

Knicks vs Heat Model Projection

Score Projection: Knicks 117 – Heat 123

Win Probability: Knicks 42%, Heat 58%

Final Thoughts

Brunson and Anunoby both being out completely limits what the Knicks can do offensively. They will have to rely far too heavily on Towns and Mikal Bridges to hit tough shots. I don’t see that going well for the Knicks. I’ll lay the point and a half with Miami on their home floor, as home teams should continue to dominate this season series.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.