The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Philadelphia 76ers in a game where the availability of star players is expected to have a huge impact on the outcome. The Sixers come into this matchup with two of their top stars listed as questionable, while the Bucks are missing the face of their franchise due to injury. Here, I break that situation down, along with everything else you need to know to make an informed Bucks vs 76ers prediction.
Our Bucks vs 76ers Pick
Pick: 76ers -10.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
- Date & Time: Tuesday, January 27, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBC and Peacock
Key Storylines
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be out multiple weeks with a right calf strain, removing Milwaukee’s top scorer and on-ball creator. The Greek Freak is so important to everything that the Bucks do and his absence is likely to hurt Milwaukee's chances of being a competitive basketball team for the foreseeable future.
- Philadelphia sat Joel Embiid and Paul George on Monday for left knee management on the second leg of a back-to-back. But they are expected to play in this contest, which should give the Sixers a massive lift.
- Tyrese Maxey has leveled up as a primary scorer, sitting at 29.4 PPG. Even with Embiid and George back on the floor, Maxey is clearly the best player on the roster for the Sixers and he will be expected to deliver in this contest against an undermanned Bucks team.
- Milwaukee’s offense has shifted to scoring by committee with Ryan Rollins, Bobby Portis, and spacing pieces like AJ Green. Their ability to create interior rim pressure dips without Giannis on the floor, but a hot outside shooting night could help offset that.
- Doc Rivers is returning to Philadelphia for this game, where he was the head coach for a period of time. This doesn't have much to do with the final outcome of this game, but it is a storyline that will be interesting nonetheless.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Sixers are 2-0 against the Bucks so far this season, winning both games in Milwaukee.
- The Bucks are 19-25 against the spread going into this matchup.
- Philadelphia is 25-19 against the spread entering this matchup.
- The under is 27-17 in games involving the Bucks this year.
- Philly is 23-21 to the over for the season.
Bucks vs 76ers Model Projection
Score Projection: Milwaukee 103 – Philadelphia 117
Win Probability: Milwaukee 32%, Philadelphia 68%
Final Thoughts
With Giannis sidelined, Milwaukee loses its best creator and defensive force, placing heavy pressure on role players to outperform expectation on the road. Philadelphia is likely reinvigorated by rest for Embiid and George, and owns advantages in free-throw rate, interior scoring, and half-court defense. My numbers make this a spot where Philadelphia will win and cover the 10.5-point spread on their home floor.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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