The Dallas Mavericks will head to OKC to face the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center on Friday night. The Thunder come into the game off to a dominant 21–1 start to the season and enjoying a 13‑game winning streak. The Mavericks, despite their overall struggles, are on a three‑game win streak heading into Oklahoma City. OKC is a heavy favorite going into this matchup and you can continue reading to find my Mavericks vs Thunder prediction for Friday night.
Our Mavericks vs Thunder Pick
- Pick: Mavericks +15.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 9:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
- The Thunder are 21–1 and are off to the best start league‑wide. They have won 13 straight games. Their mix of offense and defense has made them the benchmark for consistency in the NBA so far this season and they will try to grab a 14th win in a row in this game against the Mavs.
- Injuries could play a role in this contest. OKC is expected to be without Isaiah Hartenstein (calf strain). Veteran defenders Lu Dort and Alex Caruso have also been ruled out for this game. The loss of those key contributors could impact how effective OKC is on defense, even if they haven’t struggled without those pieces yet this season.
- For Dallas, recent momentum has come from a combination of improved shooting and the emergence of young core players. Rookie Cooper Flagg and guard Ryan Nembhard have been key contributors as of late, and the veteran presence inside from Anthony Davis has helped stabilize things defensively and on the glass.
- Daniel Gafford is listed as questionable for the Mavs going into this game. That is something to watch, as Gafford could have a big game if he plays against an OKC frontcourt that is without Hartenstein.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Earlier this season, the Thunder beat the Mavericks 101–94 in Dallas.
- OKC is 11-11 against the spread so far this season.
- Dallas is 11-12 against the spread going into this game.
- The Thunder have gone over the total in 12 of their first 22 games.
- Dallas has stayed under the total in 15 of their 23 games (the most unders in the league).
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Under 32.5 Points |
| Chet Holmgren | Over 17.5 Points |
| Jalen Williams | Over 19.5 Points |
Mavericks vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas 106 – Oklahoma City 117
Win Probability: Dallas 12%, Oklahoma City 88%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think that the Mavericks are going to put the Thunder in any serious jeopardy of losing a game here. But I do think that this game will land inside of 15 points when it comes to OKC’s margin of victory. The Mavs should have a physical advantage in the paint in this game without Hartenstein on the floor for the Thunder. That will help them keep things respectable in defeat against the defending NBA champs.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
