Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano Prediction & Preview - 9/5/2026
Updated September 3, 2026
Updated September 3, 2026
Daniil Donchenko and Punahele Soriano meet in a welterweight main-card bout at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026, at Accor Arena. Both arrive in excellent form. Donchenko has won 8 straight fights and is 3-0 in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 33, while Soriano has rebuilt his career at welterweight with 4 consecutive victories. Polymarket has Donchenko trading around 69¢, making the younger Ukrainian a clear favorite in a matchup that should feature plenty of power exchanges.
Donchenko’s Polymarket price of approximately 69¢ represents a 69% implied probability. That is substantial respect for a fighter with only 3 official UFC appearances, but his performances have given the market good reason to move in his direction. Donchenko lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.80, and his 70% significant-strike defense is especially important against a dangerous puncher such as Soriano.
I make Donchenko approximately 73% to win. His combination of speed, volume, accuracy, and defensive awareness gives him more ways to control extended striking exchanges. Soriano's wrestling keeps the gap from becoming wider, particularly because Donchenko has not faced a large sample of UFC-level grappling attacks. Still, Soriano's 47% significant-strike defense creates a difficult matchup against someone who produces Donchenko's volume.
Statistic | Daniil Donchenko | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
Age | 25 | 33 |
Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
Reach | 71" | 72.5" |
Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
Record | 15-2 | 13-4 |
Donchenko's development since winning The Ultimate Fighter has been quick. He stopped Rodrigo Sezinando in the first round of the TUF 33 final in September 2025, then faced veteran Alex Morono in February 2026. Donchenko won a unanimous decision against Morono but spent too much energy loading up on power shots. He showed a more controlled approach against Theodor Berggren in June, attacking the body and legs before finding the second-round finish. That victory extended his winning streak to 8.
The numbers from the Berggren fight showed how difficult Donchenko can be once he settles into rhythm. He landed 71 of 107 significant strikes, connecting at 66%, before earning the stoppage at 1:35 of Round 2. His career MMA statistics now include 8.07 significant strikes landed per minute at 62% accuracy. Those are exceptional early figures, even with the necessary warning that they come from a limited UFC sample.
Soriano has found considerably more success since dropping to welterweight. His current 4-fight winning streak began with a unanimous decision over Miguel Baeza in June 2024. He then knocked out Uroš Medić in just 31 seconds, followed by a decision victory against Nikolay Veretennikov at UFC 320, and most recently defeated Ramiz Brahimaj by unanimous decision on February 21, 2026.
Soriano's wrestling could be his most useful weapon Saturday. He averages 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and has completed approximately 51% of his attempts. For a southpaw with legitimate knockout power, that threat can also help create opportunities on the feet. Donchenko has defended 75% of the takedowns attempted against him, but he doesn't have enough UFC grappling data yet to treat that figure as definitive.
The deciding factor may be whether Soriano can repeatedly force clinches and wrestling exchanges. If he can turn the fight into a physical contest along the fence, the 69¢ Donchenko price becomes uncomfortable. If Donchenko keeps his distance and makes Soriano exchange at kickboxing range, his speed, output, and accuracy should produce enough moments to win the fight.
At 69¢, Donchenko still offers a modest advantage relative to my 73% win estimate. My prediction is for Donchenko to win, with his striking efficiency and defensive numbers eventually allowing him to separate himself from an experienced opponent who has been excellent since moving to welterweight.
