Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Prediction & Fight Preview - 8/22/2026
Updated August 21, 2026
Updated August 21, 2026
Chris Padilla and Nasrat Haqparast meet in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on Saturday, August 22, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Haqparast owns the longer UFC résumé and has a high-volume Muay Thai-based striking game, but Padilla enters this fight with an 8-fight unbeaten run, a 4-0 UFC record and a significantly more varied finishing arsenal. Here, I break down Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast and make my pick for it in the betting markets.
The betting case for Padilla is primarily about price. At -105, a bettor needs him to win only 51.2% of the time to break even. My projection puts his win probability at 55%, producing a 3.8% edge. That is enough to make the underdog the preferred side rather than laying the price with Haqparast.
Statistic | Chris Padilla | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
Age | 30 | 30 |
Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
Reach | 74" | 72" |
Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
Record | 17-6-1 | 18-6 |
KO/TKO Wins | 9 | 10 |
Submission Wins | 5 | 0 |
Decision Wins | 3 | 8 |
Padilla has quietly built one of the better recent records of any fighter on this portion of the UFC roster. He is 4-0 inside the UFC, with victories over James Llontop, Rongzhu, Jai Herbert, and Ismael Bonfim before fighting MarQuel Mederos to a majority draw in April. In that draw, Padilla produced 147 significant strikes on 271 attempts while Mederos landed 112 of 180.
That result should not be viewed as a major negative. Padilla's 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute is slightly below Haqparast's 6.36, but Padilla owns a substantial advantage in accuracy. He also averages 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared with just 0.34 for Haqparast. Padilla's 80% takedown defense also gives him a useful layer of protection if the fight becomes more physical in the clinch.
Haqparast's greatest advantage is his experience and proven ability to sustain a high striking pace. The German-born Afghan fighter has an 18-6 record and 10 knockout victories. He has also defended 86% of the takedowns attempted against him, meaning Padilla is unlikely to simply decide to wrestle his way to an easy victory.
The biggest concern for Haqparast is his most recent performance. He was stopped by Quillan Salkilld via head kick at 2:30 of the 1st round in October 2025. That ended a 4-fight winning run and leaves him entering Sacramento after roughly 10 months away from competition. Before the loss, Haqparast had defeated Esteban Ribovics by split decision, Jared Gordon by split decision, and Jamie Mullarkey by 1st-round TKO.
Stylistically, this should be a predominantly striking fight, but Padilla has more ways to change the terms. Haqparast is a southpaw who prefers to work behind his boxing and kicks, while Padilla is an orthodox fighter with a more diverse offensive package. Padilla's 5 submission victories are important because they force Haqparast to respect level changes and clinch exchanges. Even if Padilla does not score many takedowns, the threat can create openings for his longer right hand and kicking game.
The market appears to have moved in Haqparast's direction despite Padilla's undefeated UFC record. That is precisely why the underdog price is attractive. At -105, the market implies roughly a 51.2% chance of victory, while my assessment gives Padilla a 55% chance. The difference is large enough to justify a bet, particularly because Padilla has already demonstrated that he can win UFC fights in several different ways.
Prediction: Chris Padilla by decision.
